Bitcoin “Bottom” Report From Bitfinex Raises Questions on Market Outlook

TL;DR

• Deep correction: BTC records its third-largest drop of the cycle, losing 25% from its all-time high and trading below $94,000.
• Seller exhaustion: On-chain metrics indicate that 80% of recent sales are executed at a loss, a signal of a potential local bottom.
• Macroeconomic scars: The end of the U.S. government shutdown leaves GDP losses and persistent inflation that curbs optimism.

A critical moment has arrived in the cryptocurrency market following the third-largest correction of the current cycle. The pioneer crypto, BTC, retreated 25% from its all-time high, breaking important psychological levels, and currently trades below $94,000.

Momentum remains bearish across lower timeframes, but Bitfinex analysts imply that the speed of selling and the magnitude of realized losses are beginning to stabilize. This suggests that, instead of an extended capitulation, the market could be entering a necessary Bitcoin consolidation phase.

From a technical and on-chain perspective, the moment is delicate yet revealing. Bitcoin’s price sits firmly below the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, situated at $111,900.

Experts suggest that downside risks persist as long as this level is not reclaimed. However, signs of exhaustion are evident: the STH Profit/Loss Ratio has dropped below 0.20, meaning over 80% of recently moved coins were sold at a loss.

Historically, when the supply in profit for this group collapses to current levels (7.6%), it usually coincides with the formation of local bottoms.

Macroeconomic Impact and Regulatory Advances

For this Bitcoin consolidation phase to result in a durable base, the “time” factor will be more relevant than “price,” possibly extending until the end of the fourth quarter. This scenario unfolds within a weakened U.S. macroeconomic context.

The 43-day government shutdown left severe economic wounds, with permanent GDP losses estimated between $7 and $14 billion and declining business confidence, reflected in the October NFIB index. Furthermore, persistent inflation suggests the Federal Reserve could keep rates higher for longer, putting pressure on risk assets.

Despite the confusing scenario, there are mixed advances in the regulatory framework. A bipartisan bill in the U.S. Senate proposes transferring primary oversight of digital assets from the SEC to the CFTC, classifying most tokens as “digital commodities.”

At the same time, institutional adoption continues to advance: TKO Group (parent of UFC) has partnered with Polymarket, and in Europe, the Czech National Bank has launched a pilot with a portfolio including Bitcoin. These movements demonstrate that, despite the current Bitcoin consolidation phase, structural interest in the technology remains intact.