European gas prices surged as much as 6% on Monday, reaching their highest point since the 2022-2023 energy crisis. The jump was driven by escalating Middle East tensions and warnings about dangerously low winter storage levels across Europe.
The Dutch TTF front-month contract, Europe’s benchmark for gas trading, rose to around 83-84 euros per megawatt-hour. That puts prices above January 2023 levels, when Europe faced its first winter with little Russian pipeline gas.
The British NBP wholesale gas contract also climbed nearly 5%, breaking through the 200 pence per therm level for the first time in years.
Europe’s underground gas storage is sitting at just under 70% capacity. That compares to 82% at the same point in 2025 and a five-year average above 80%.
Analysts say Europe is heading into winter with one of the lowest storage levels in two decades. The gap with historical averages has rattled energy markets.
Yukio Kani, CEO and Chair of JERA, Japan’s largest power generator and one of the world’s biggest LNG buyers, issued a direct warning on Monday. He said Europe’s reserves are low and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could last longer than expected.
The trigger for Monday’s sharp move was Saudi Arabia shutting down its East-West oil pipeline over the weekend. That pipeline allows Saudi Arabia to move oil without using the Strait of Hormuz.
Military friction in the Persian Gulf has already reduced LNG tanker traffic through the strait to a trickle. Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, depends heavily on that route.
Yemen’s Houthi militants have also advanced near Red Sea transit corridors. Fresh strikes on regional pipeline infrastructure have made alternative routes harder to use.
Analysts at Kpler have warned of a global “fight for fuel,” especially if this winter turns colder than expected. Asia’s spot LNG prices hit their highest level since 2022 last week, showing competition for available cargoes is intensifying.
Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy noted that disruptions have pushed European gas above the equivalent of $140 per barrel.
Brent crude rose about 3-4% on Monday, trading near $112 a barrel. That adds to the energy price shock already hitting European economies.
The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.50% last Thursday. With gas and oil prices climbing further, money markets now expect central banks to keep rates restrictive well into next year.
Surging energy costs raise the risk of broader price increases across the eurozone. That leaves policymakers in a difficult position heading into winter.
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