Evercore ISI initiated coverage on SpaceX (SPCX) with an Outperform rating and a price target of $230 on Monday, calling the company “an extraordinary company on a real path to reshaping the future of humanity.”
The stock was trading at $139.14 at the time of the initiation, sitting just 2% above its 52-week low of $136.78. Evercore’s target implies a potential upside of around 65%.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The initiation comes as SpaceX prepares for the 13th test flight of its Starship rocket, scheduled for no earlier than Thursday at 6:45 p.m. EDT from Starbase, Texas.
Evercore analyst Kutgun Maral authored the 150-page coverage report, which included over 130 exhibits and drew on analysts from cable and telecom, communications infrastructure, hardware, internet, and semiconductor sectors.
Maral’s core thesis is that SpaceX’s businesses feed into each other. Reusable rockets lower launch costs, which helps build out Starlink faster. Starlink generates revenue that can then fund terrestrial computing, mobile connectivity, and potential orbital data centers.
The firm projects SpaceX revenue and EBITDA to compound at 106% and 157% respectively through 2028, with operating margins expanding from 35% to 69%. Over the last twelve months, SpaceX reported revenue of $19.3 billion and EBITDA of $3.95 billion.
Analysts are forecasting 95% revenue growth in the current year. The analysis covers five business segments: launch services, Starlink connectivity, mobile strategy, terrestrial compute, and orbital compute.
Maral did not sugarcoat the risks. Starship has not yet delivered an operational payload. Starlink’s mobile service still needs to gain real traction. Orbital computing may not even be tested until 2029 or later.
The upcoming Starship Flight 13 will be the second test of the newer Version 3 design, which is larger and more powerful than earlier models.
The previous flight in May had problems. The Super Heavy booster shifted into an unexpected position during separation, suffered heat damage, and several engines failed to restart, causing SpaceX to lose the booster entirely.
The FAA has since cleared SpaceX to proceed after completing an investigation into that failure.
Stifel has a Buy rating on SPCX with a $190 price target. Raymond James carries a Strong Buy with a $800 target. Bernstein SocGen Group has an Outperform rating with a $239 price target.
The broader analyst consensus on SPCX is Strong Buy, based on 23 Buys, four Holds, and one Sell over the past three months. The average price target across analysts stands at $245.32, implying roughly 72% upside from current levels.
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