The Week Ahead: Will Inflation Data Keep Stock Market Party Going After Fed Rate Cut?

21-Sep-2025

TLDR

  • Fed cut interest rates for first time in 2025, sending all major US indexes to record highs
  • Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data due Friday will guide future Fed policy decisions
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell and new Governor Stephen Miran scheduled to speak this week
  • Micron Technology earnings Tuesday expected to show strong AI chip demand continues
  • Oil prices fell over 1% Friday as OPEC+ production increases pressure energy markets

The Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut of 2025 has pushed US stock markets to new record highs. All three major indexes closed at record levels on Thursday for the first time since 2021.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all reached fresh peaks following the Fed’s decision. Friday saw another round of record closes for the major indexes.

S&P 500 INDEX (^SPX)
S&P 500 INDEX (^SPX)

Bitcoin traded between $114,000 and $117,000 last week, supported by bullish institutional inflows and growing technical momentum. After briefly dipping below $110,000 in early September, it rebounded to $115,700, with analysts eyeing a potential Q4 breakout.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that elevated inflation and weakening labor markets present “no risk-free path” forward. The central bank cut rates but signaled caution about future moves.

Several Fed officials will speak this week including Powell and newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran. Their remarks will be closely watched for hints about upcoming policy decisions.

Key Economic Data Expected

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index for August comes Friday. This represents the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and will influence future rate decisions.

Source: Forex Factory

Core PCE inflation is expected to ease to 0.2% in August. Annual increases are projected to remain at 2.9%, still above the Fed’s 2% target.

Second-quarter GDP gets its final revision Thursday. The data was revised higher in August and remains a key economic indicator.

New and pending home sales data for August will reflect recent mortgage rate declines. Consumer sentiment, jobless claims, and durable goods orders are also scheduled.

Corporate Earnings Focus

Micron Technology reports earnings Tuesday after hitting record highs last week. The memory chip maker posted record quarterly revenue in June driven by data center demand.

Analysts remain bullish on Micron stock as AI applications continue driving chip demand. The company’s guidance will be closely watched for future revenue projections.

Costco reports quarterly results Thursday after May sales grew 8% year-over-year. Same-store sales growth continues as consumer spending remains resilient.

CarMax earnings the same day will provide insight into used car market conditions. Auto parts seller AutoZone and business services provider Cintas also report.

Stock market inflows reached $57.7 billion this week according to Bank of America data. This represents the largest weekly inflow since December as investors embrace rate cuts.

Cash outflows totaled nearly $5 billion, marking the first weekly outflow since July. Investor sentiment has shifted toward risk assets following the Fed move.

Energy markets faced pressure despite easier financial conditions. Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate fell over 1% Friday.

OPEC+ agreed to raise production rates in October as Saudi Arabia pursues larger market share. Higher output has increased fears of continued price weakness.

Oil prices remain down over 10% this year despite lower borrowing costs. The dollar’s decline following rate cuts has not provided the usual support for oil prices.

Nuclear power stocks have rallied as data centers drive electricity demand higher. Bank of America projects a $10 trillion opportunity in nuclear over coming decades.

Friday’s PCE data will be the first inflation reading since the Fed’s rate cut decision.

The post The Week Ahead: Will Inflation Data Keep Stock Market Party Going After Fed Rate Cut? appeared first on CoinCentral.

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