Nio (NIO) stock is trading at $4.93, up 3.2% on Tuesday, after Goldman Sachs upgraded the Chinese EV maker from Neutral to Buy and lifted its price target from $6.60 to $7.00.
Goldman analyst Tina Hou made the call, arguing the stock has become “disconnected from the company’s improving fundamentals.” NIO is down 3% year-to-date and off 28% from its April peak, sitting well below its 52-week high of $8.02.
The upgrade comes as NIO’s product lineup is gaining real traction. The all-new ES8 has averaged over 10,000 monthly sales in the 12 months through June 2026, making it the top seller in the Rmb400k+ SUV segment.
Tonight, we officially launched the large five-seat version of the NIO ES8, starting at RMB 382,800 for full purchase and RMB 274,800 with Battery as a Service (BaaS) option.
The premium large five-seat SUV is entering the all-electric era.
Five people. Twenty-one suitcases.… pic.twitter.com/A9KKeJYvqI
— William Li (@WilliamLiNIO) July 9, 2026
NIO delivered 191,000 vehicles in the first half of 2026, a 67% jump year-over-year. That’s a strong number on its own — but it looks even better when you consider the broader NEV market saw retail sales fall 14% over the same period.
The company now holds a 39% market share in the Rmb400k+ vehicle segment and grew its overall NEV retail market share to 3.6% in 1H 2026, up from 2.1% a year earlier.
Hou forecasts NIO’s volume will grow 43% in 2026, driven by new model launches including the ES9 and L80, which arrived in May 2026. The domestic NEV market is only expected to grow 1% over the same period.
Looking further out, she projects volume growth of 19% in 2027 and 11% in 2028, supported by refreshes to NIO’s 5 and 6 series models.
On margins, Hou expects NIO to reach a vehicle gross margin of 17% in 2026, above the peer average of 15%.
The most striking forecast is on profitability. NIO is projected to post a non-GAAP net profit of Rmb1.6 billion in 2026, compared with a loss of Rmb12.4 billion in 2025. Free cash flow is expected to swing from -Rmb3.1 billion to +Rmb12.1 billion.
Compared to pure-play NEV peers, NIO is trading at a 25-29% discount on a 2026-2027 price-to-sales basis and a 17% discount on a 2027 price-to-earnings basis. Hou sees that gap as an opportunity given near-term product momentum.
The $7 target implies about 40% upside from current levels. The Street’s consensus price target sits at $6.42-$6.70, depending on the source, still pointing to roughly 28-36% upside.
The broader analyst picture is mixed. Goldman’s upgrade adds to a current tally of seven Buy ratings, four Holds, and two Sells, giving NIO a consensus Hold rating.
Institutional buying has been picking up. ABC Arbitrage SA disclosed a new Q1 stake of 670,417 shares worth around $4 million. Atlantic Union Bankshares and Allworth Financial also increased positions in recent quarters. Institutional investors and hedge funds now hold 48.55% of NIO’s outstanding stock.
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