Hedera Targets 31% Rally as ETF Inflows Hit 2026 Peak, But One Barrier Remains

TL;DR

• HBAR is forming a W base at $0.102 with a neckline near $0.135, implying about 31% upside toward $0.176 if it breaks.
• The 50-day EMA near $0.127 has rejected prior 8% to 16% rallies, and it now converges with the neckline as the key barrier.
• ETF inflows hit about $1.46M for the week ending Jan. 16, while spot outflows jumped 150% to $2.22M; ETF week closes Jan. 23 for confirmation.

Hedera’s HBAR is approaching a make-or-break zone after weeks of base building, with price action, spot flows, and ETF demand starting to align. The daily chart shows a W base anchored at $0.102, and the pattern’s neckline sits near $0.135, the same region that capped prior rallies. The timing is drawing fresh attention today. This setup matters because a clean break would turn months of failed bounces into a measurable upside path. If the neckline breaks, the structure implies about 31% upside toward $0.176, but a familiar ceiling still looms and buyers must prove themselves.

A chart pattern meets a supply squeeze

HBAR has repeatedly struggled to reclaim its key exponential moving averages, and that history is why one barrier is in focus. In early January, price reclaimed the 20-day EMA and sparked short rallies of about 8% to 16%, only to fade when it could not hold above the 50-day EMA. The crucial point is that the W neckline and the 50-day EMA are converging, forcing one decisive test. Because EMAs weight recent price action, clearing the 50-day line near $0.127 would mark the first clean reclaim in weeks and put $0.135 within reach right now.

Beneath the chart, demand signals are improving in tandem. For the week ending Jan. 16, net HBAR ETF inflows reached about $1.46 million, the strongest weekly total of 2026 so far, and that slower capital often absorbs supply during consolidation. Spot data echoed that tightening: between Jan. 18 and Jan. 19, net spot outflows jumped from roughly $882,000 to $2.22 million, a rise of more than 150% in one day. The current ETF week closes Jan. 23 soon. When tokens leave exchanges before a breakout, supply can tighten ahead of price rather than after it.

Momentum indicators are also leaning constructive, but the bullish case remains conditional. HBAR is testing a lower-low structure while the Relative Strength Index nears a higher low, a divergence that often signals weakening sell pressure. As long as price holds above $0.102, the divergence and the W base remain valid, keeping the 31% projection on the table. A sustained break below $0.102 would invalidate the setup and reopen downside risk. On the upside, reclaiming $0.118 restores the 20-day EMA, clearing $0.127 targets $0.135, and then the projected $0.152 and $0.176 zones for a trend change.