TL;DR:
Indonesia’s Ministry of Communications and Digital Affairs (Komdigi) blocked access to Polymarket. The trigger was the prediction market platform’s offering of bets on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before completing his five-year term, currently set to run through October 2029.
Ministry official Alexander Sabar justified the measure with a categorical stance: “The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia. Activities like those on Polymarket involve betting and speculation on uncertain outcomes, which violates Indonesian legislation.” The ministry described the platform as “a gambling site disguised as a prediction market” and extended the ban to other similar services suspected of facilitating comparable practices.
The market in question was opened on May 21 and allowed users to bet on whether Prabowo would leave office before May 31, June 30, or December 31, 2026. The contract recorded more than $46,000 in trading volume. Traders assigned a probability of 1% to a departure before May 31, 2% before June 30, and 18% before the end of the year.
Indonesia’s decision is far from unique. The platform is already blocked in more than 30 jurisdictions, among them India, which extended its restrictions recently. Despite the difficult environment, Polymarket has signaled interest in obtaining regulatory approval in select markets, including Japan.
Supporters of these emerging markets argue they function as collective forecasting tools and sentiment trackers, offering genuine informational utility. Critics, however, contend they closely resemble online gambling and carry risks of market manipulation and insider trading.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is also experiencing internal tensions around prediction markets: according to a report by The New York Times, officials who publicly questioned these instruments were suspended from their positions.
