IREN Limited (IREN) is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results on August 27, after the closing bell. The stock was down around 5% to $40.16 during Wednesday trading, as investors pulled back ahead of the print.
Wall Street is looking for a loss of $0.46 per share on revenue of $135.6M. Analyst sentiment heading into the report is cautious. There have been no upward EPS revisions in the last three months, while two analysts have revised estimates lower.
Revenue estimates tell a similar story. Ten downward revisions have been made, with zero moving higher.
Beyond the headline numbers, forward guidance is the main event here. In July, IREN raised its 2026 annual recurring revenue target to over $4B, up from $3.4B, after signing multi-year cloud services contracts with leading AI developers totaling roughly $2.8B in contract value.
At the time, the company said around 85% of that revised ARR target was already under contract. That level of forward coverage caught the attention of Seeking Alpha analyst Petri Dish Reports.
“The way I see it, that level of forward coverage is unusually high for an AI infrastructure name at this stage. What it tells us is that demand isn’t just strong here, it’s already locked in,” the analyst said.
IREN management also previously said it expects to deliver 140,000 GPUs by the end of 2026.
Looking further out, Passage Research expects IREN’s 2027 ARR to jump to over $6.5B. The same analyst models AI Cloud ARR hitting $10B by 2028, and nearly $11B by 2029.
“In 2027, as the business ramps up, capacity comes online, and more GPUs are commissioned. The 1.21 GW in capacity should equate to an ARR that is north of $6.5 billion,” the analyst noted.
Passage Research models $3.1B in revenue for next year, slightly above the Street consensus of $3B.
Wednesday’s selloff is not just pre-earnings nerves. A technical “death cross” has triggered momentum selling, adding to pressure from bearish analyst commentary around the company’s debt load.
Investors are uneasy about IREN’s debt-funded expansion strategy, with concerns that the balance sheet may be overstretched. There are also worries about a potential share overhang following the Mirantis deal, alongside elevated short interest.
IREN’s year-to-date price performance still sits at a gain of around 12%, and its average daily trading volume is over 45 million. The company currently holds a market cap of approximately $14.21B.
The company’s secured power portfolio and long-term contracts give it clearer capacity and revenue visibility heading into the report.
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