Jefferies has initiated coverage on Liberty Formula One (FWONK) with a Buy rating and a price target of $115, up from the stock’s current price of $94.95. That target implies around 21% upside from where the stock last closed.
Liberty Media Corporation, FWONK
Analyst Anthony Berni described FWONK as a “high-quality media and consumer experiences business” targeting affluent consumers. The firm values it at 1.6 times enterprise value to OIBDA growth, calling that a reasonable entry point.
The $23.6 billion company generated $4.02 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with 8% growth. Jefferies projects revenue climbing to $5.84 billion by 2028.
The firm’s bullish case rests on three pillars: asset-light growth from media rights and sponsorship, leverage over team payments, and the MotoGP acquisition.
Jefferies called the Apple TV partnership one of the most underappreciated opportunities for FWONK. The deal is U.S.-exclusive and gives Formula One access to Apple TV’s more than 20 million subscribers.
The firm estimates the arrangement could add around $55 million annually in media-rights revenue through 2030. That number could grow if Apple moves to secure international rights.
A proprietary survey from Jefferies found fan engagement has increased following the deal. Stronger upfront payments are also expected to support near-term media rights growth.
While Apple TV’s total addressable market is smaller than ESPN’s, Jefferies believes the subscriber base closely matches Formula One’s premium demographic. That makes the partnership more valuable than the raw subscriber numbers might suggest.
Berni highlighted a large gap between how F1 and MotoGP currently monetize their audiences. F1 generates roughly five times MotoGP’s media-rights revenue, six times its race-promotion revenue, and 10 times its sponsorship revenue, despite having only around twice the global fan base.
That gap, in Jefferies’ view, points to a major monetization opportunity as FWONK brings its Formula One playbook to MotoGP.
The MotoGP acquisition, combined with the separation of Liberty Live and Quint, has left FWONK as a more focused company centered on two motorsport properties.
Jefferies forecasts adjusted OIBDA margins expanding from 23.8% to 27.2% by 2028, driven by the asset-light model and operating leverage.
The firm also projects over 70% free cash flow conversion, which it expects will support deleveraging. Net leverage is forecast to fall below 1x by end of 2028, down from roughly 3.8x following the MotoGP acquisition.
FWONK’s most recent quarterly results came in below Wall Street estimates. Revenue of $934 million missed the $956.93 million forecast, and adjusted earnings of $0.24 per share fell short of the $0.2551 consensus. Company executives attributed the miss to race-calendar timing.
Guggenheim raised its price target on the stock from $125 to $134 following those results, maintaining its Buy rating and citing sponsorship momentum. Liberty Media also announced a $600 million convertible senior notes offering, with an option for an additional $90 million.
The post Liberty Formula One (FWONK) Stock Gets Buy Rating from Jefferies on MotoGP and Apple TV Growth appeared first on CoinCentral.
