Tesla (TSLA) stock opened at $400.49 on Monday, with Jefferies now setting a price target of $375 — about 6% below current levels — after trimming its outlook and flagging a new structural concern for the stock.
The core of Jefferies’ worry isn’t just valuation. It’s that growing market speculation around a Tesla-SpaceX merger could turn TSLA into a proxy for SpaceX’s performance rather than Tesla’s own business results.
Following the blockbuster SpaceX (SPCX) IPO, Jefferies noted that consensus around a merger “may turn TSLA into a tracker as shareholders try to minimize stake dilution.” That’s a different kind of risk than a standard earnings miss.
If that narrative takes hold, Tesla’s price discovery could drift away from its actual operating fundamentals — a messy setup for investors trying to value the EV business on its own merits.
Jefferies’ take is blunt: “Valuation and estimates remain disconnected.” The firm doesn’t see that tension resolving cleanly in either direction in the near term.
A big part of Jefferies’ caution comes from its read on Tesla’s next growth chapter. The firm is projecting below-consensus results, built on the view that robotaxi and humanoid robot launches will initially create losses rather than profits.
That’s a more conservative stance than much of Wall Street, which has been pricing in a revenue acceleration from those businesses. Jefferies isn’t saying the long-term potential isn’t there — it’s saying the market is skipping over the painful investment phase in between.
Tesla’s Q1 numbers gave a mixed picture. EPS came in at $0.41, beating the $0.39 estimate. But revenue of $22.39 billion fell short of the $22.96 billion consensus. Year-over-year revenue growth was 15.8%, and the company’s net margin sits at 3.95%.
On the regulatory front, Tesla got supervised FSD approval in Denmark — a modest step forward. But Sweden may push back on the rollout unless Tesla changes how the system handles speed limits.
That keeps European FSD expansion uncertain, and limits near-term software revenue prospects in the region.
Insider activity has been mixed. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold shares worth roughly $1.05 million in early June, with the sale attributed to tax obligations related to equity vesting. Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold shares worth nearly $10 million in late April under a pre-arranged trading plan.
On the other side, Elon Musk exercised options that lifted his Tesla ownership to 19.9%, and ARK Invest added to its position.
Westmount Partners increased its Tesla stake by 61.9% in Q1, picking up 2,719 additional shares. Institutional investors now hold 66.20% of the stock.
Wall Street’s overall stance is Hold. Of 45 analysts tracked, 21 rate it Buy, 19 Hold, and 5 Sell. The consensus price target is $404.37.
Tesla has a 52-week range of $288.77 to $498.83. The stock’s PE ratio stands at 367.42, and its market cap is $1.50 trillion.
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