Nvidia reports first-quarter earnings today, May 20, 2026, after the bell. Wall Street is expecting roughly $79 billion in revenue — a year-over-year jump of around 80%.
That would be a record. But record results may not be enough to keep the stock moving higher.
Jim Cramer, the CNBC host and former hedge fund manager, posted a warning on X early Tuesday morning. He said investors should expect a brief pop in NVDA’s price right after the print — lasting just 10 to 12 minutes — before sellers move in.
“The Nvidia pattern we are all now used to: an initial fly-up, lasting 10-12 minutes, then a relentless hammering that takes the stock to where it breaks the chart. Do not be fooled by the first move,” Cramer wrote.
NVDA was trading around $223.57 as of May 19, up nearly 20% year-to-date. The stock has gained close to 6,000% since June 2017.
This earnings report is about more than one quarter’s numbers. Nvidia is central to the AI infrastructure buildout, and its forward guidance will carry weight across the entire tech sector.
Traders are tracking three things closely: whether demand for AI chips from Microsoft, Meta, and Google holds up through year-end; updates on Nvidia’s new chip systems and international business; and whether management’s outlook is strong enough to justify the stock’s current valuation after a rally that began in March.
Options markets are pricing in a move of 6% to 10% in either direction when trading opens Thursday.
Analyst Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research has a different explanation for Nvidia’s recurring post-earnings dips. He points to the derivatives market, describing what happened in February as an “options wall” — brokers unwinding sold calls rather than any shift in the business fundamentals.
Johnson has also raised broader questions about how Wall Street sets earnings expectations, suggesting analysts routinely lower estimates ahead of reports to manufacture beats.
Separately, there are structural questions around data center capacity. Multiple 2026 reports indicate construction timelines are lagging, and component backlogs for energy supply have stretched beyond five years in some cases. A portion of Nvidia’s sold Blackwell GPUs may still be sitting unused, raising questions about whether large customers will keep buying at current volumes.
Despite those concerns, Cramer has remained consistently bullish on Nvidia throughout. Analysts rate the stock a Strong Buy — 40 Buys, one Hold, one Sell over the past three months — with an average 12-month price target of $281.97.
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