JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman isn’t buying the Tesla recovery story — and he’s not shy about it.
Brinkman reiterated his Sell rating on Tesla (TSLA) on Monday, keeping his price target at $145. That implies a drop of roughly 60% from current trading levels around $354.
His note follows Tesla’s Q1 2026 delivery report, which came in at 358,023 vehicles. That’s a 6.3% rise year-over-year, but it missed analyst estimates of 366,000–370,000 units and fell 14% from Q4 2025.
Brinkman said the results were 4% below Bloomberg consensus and 7% below JPMorgan’s own forecast. Not a small miss.
What caught his eye beyond deliveries was the inventory build. Tesla produced 50,363 more cars than it delivered in the quarter. That pushed estimated total inventory to a record 164,000 vehicles — the largest inventory build in any single quarter.
More inventory means more cash tied up in unsold cars. Brinkman warned this, combined with higher capital spending in 2026, will put real pressure on free cash flow.
He cut his Q1 EPS estimate to $0.30 from $0.43. His full-year 2026 EPS forecast dropped to $1.80 from $2.00.
The EV tax credit expiration didn’t help. The $7,500 federal credit for EV buyers was removed at the end of last year, cooling domestic demand. High interest rates have made car financing more expensive on top of that.
Tesla is also facing rising competition from BYD, Mercedes-Benz, GM, and Ford, all of whom are still pushing EV lineups forward.
Energy storage was another weak spot. Tesla’s energy storage installations dropped 15% year-over-year to 8.8 GWh — the first such decline since Q2 2022, according to Brinkman.
Tesla’s bull case rests on future products. CEO Elon Musk says 2026 will be a big year, with the Cybercab — Tesla’s steering-wheel-free robotaxi — set to begin initial production this month.
Musk is also pushing ahead with the Optimus humanoid robot, targeting factory deployment for repetitive tasks by year-end.
Brinkman acknowledged execution risk on these products has come down. But he flagged that moving into higher-volume, lower-price segments carries real demand and competition risk.
Wall Street remains split. TSLA has 13 Buy ratings, 11 Holds, and 8 Sells. The average price target sits at $393.97, implying roughly 12% upside — a far cry from JPMorgan’s $145.
TSLA is down 20% so far in 2026, the weakest name in the Magnificent Seven group.
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