JPMorgan has revised its Brent crude price projections downward for the latter half of 2026, citing disappointing demand trends and underwhelming inventory withdrawal rates.
The investment bank’s updated outlook calls for Brent crude to average $86 per barrel during the third quarter of 2026, followed by $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
As 2026 draws to a close, JPMorgan anticipates Brent trading at $78 per barrel. The bank’s longer-term outlook proves even more bearish, with a 2027 annual average of just $64 per barrel.
Commercial inventory drawdowns within OECD nations have underperformed relative to JPMorgan’s initial expectations. Simultaneously, demand destruction has proven more significant than the bank’s earlier models anticipated.
This dual dynamic has eased upward pressure on oil prices. According to JPMorgan, the market has achieved balance through a mechanism that diverges substantially from its original projections.
The confluence of subdued demand growth and disappointing stock depletion rates translates to reduced price support compared to the bank’s previous assumptions.
Current oil flow rates sit at approximately 8.6 million barrels daily. Through June thus far, flows have registered 6.3 million barrels per day—a notable improvement compared to April and May figures.
Despite this uptick in flow activity, private sector entities have demonstrated reluctance to tap their proprietary oil inventories. These commercial operators have instead depended almost exclusively on government Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases to maintain refinery operations.
J.P. Morgan anticipates an additional 50 million barrel drawdown from OECD stockpiles between April and July under its updated second-half scenario.
The bank has also highlighted the possibility of surplus conditions emerging in Q4 2026 and extending into the first half of 2027. Should this materialize, producers would likely need to curtail production in early 2027 following a period of maximized output during late 2026.
JPMorgan has not identified any specific catalysts that might alter this trajectory before the year concludes.
The revised projections signal a more conservative stance on global oil consumption heading into the year’s final months. The $64 average anticipated for 2027 represents a dramatic decline from the $80 and $86 levels forecast for the second half of 2026.
The research note did not include any modifications to the bank’s projections for alternative energy commodities.
JPMorgan published this forecast revision on June 24, 2026.
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