Lemonade has had a rough 2026 so far. The stock is down around 8% year to date, weighed down by inflation concerns, property market jitters, and questions about its growth runway. But Wednesday’s Q1 earnings report could change the mood fast.
Wall Street is expecting revenue of $254.03 million for Q1, which would be a 68% jump from the same quarter last year. That’s a big number — and it’s a step up from the 53% growth Lemonade posted in Q4 2025.
The expected EPS loss sits at $0.58 per share. While still a loss, that would mark a 32.6% year-on-year improvement. Lemonade isn’t profitable yet, but the direction of travel matters here.
Options markets are taking the report seriously. Traders are pricing in a move of roughly 14.66% in either direction following the results. That’s a wide band, and it reflects genuine uncertainty heading into Wednesday.
Lemonade does have form when it comes to beating estimates. It topped analyst expectations in recent quarters on both revenue and EPS, so the bar exists — and it’s cleared it before.
Going into this report, in-force premium stood at $1.24 billion at the end of Q4, up 31% year on year. That extended nine straight quarters of accelerating growth, which is one of the cleaner data points in the bull case.
Customer growth is another. Lemonade added around 550,000 new customers in 2025 — roughly 35% more than the year before. Growth came across pet, car, and home lines, showing the model isn’t dependent on a single product.
One of the bigger storylines heading into earnings is Lemonade’s insurance product for Tesla Full Self-Driving users. The company has promised to cut per-mile rates by around 50% for FSD drivers, positioning itself early in the autonomous vehicle insurance space.
Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Huang recently upgraded LMND from Hold to Buy, raising his price target from $80 to $85. The upgrade leaned heavily on Lemonade’s early entry into autonomous vehicle coverage as a potential long-term advantage.
Beyond the top-line numbers, analysts will be watching for any update on bad debt trends and interest expense — both of which weighed on Q4 results. Rising interest rate fears tied to geopolitical pressures, including the ongoing Iran conflict, add another layer of scrutiny.
Peers in the property and casualty insurance space have already reported. Stewart Information Services beat estimates by 4.7% and traded up 3.9%. First American Financial beat by 2.4% and rose 3.5%. The broader sector is up 6.7% over the past month.
Lemonade has outpaced that, up 12.3% over the same period, though it’s still negative on the year.
The consensus analyst rating on LMND sits at Hold — two Buys, four Holds, two Sells. The average price target is $54.40, which implies downside from the current price of $65.95. Morgan Stanley’s $85 target is the highest on the Street.
Lemonade reports before the open on April 29.
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