TLDR
Since the beginning of 2026, investor sentiment has turned cautious. The latest data from platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket reveal that the possibility of seeing Bitcoin reach $100,000 in the short term is extremely low, with odds oscillating between 6% and 7% for the remainder of January.
This lack of bullish conviction comes amid a landscape of macroeconomic uncertainty and an absence of immediate catalysts. Although the pioneer cryptocurrency reached a yearly high of $97,900 on January 14, the price continues to struggle to maintain the momentum necessary to break the six-figure psychological barrier.
Furthermore, analysts are concerned that the derivatives market is pricing in more pessimistic scenarios. For instance, a majority of bettors on Polymarket give a 65% probability that the asset will drop toward the $80,000 range before seeing any significant recovery toward the end of the semester.
Large corporate treasuries are also commanding the sector’s full attention, especially MicroStrategy. According to traders, there is a 75% probability that the Bitcoin price will fall below the average acquisition cost of the company led by Michael Saylor, which currently stands at $75,979.
However, despite the expected volatility, institutional commitment remains steadfast. Bets suggest an 84% probability that MicroStrategy will continue increasing its reserves to exceed 800,000 BTC by the end of December, acting as a pillar of constant accumulation.
In summary, although the goal of seeing Bitcoin reach $100,000 in the short term seems to be fading from the immediate calendar, the ecosystem is preparing for a rebalancing phase. Investors should monitor whether the $70,000 support level withstands selling pressure before a new cycle of price discovery begins.
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