TL;DR
Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet is leaning into 2026 growth even after a large year-end Bitcoin write-down pushed its 2025 bottom line deep into the red on paper. Metaplanet is drawing a bright line between operating momentum and accounting volatility. In a Monday notice, the firm raised its 2025 guidance to 8.905 billion yen, about $58 million, and lifted expected operating income to $40 million. Yet it still forecast an ordinary loss of $632 million and a net loss of $491 million, driven by a non-cash Bitcoin impairment of roughly $680 million to $700 million.
The company described the impairment as mark-to-market accounting tied to quarter-end prices rather than a liquidity event. Management is positioning the write-down as a paper hit with no direct impact on cash flows or operations. Metaplanet said fourth-quarter 2025 revenue from its Bitcoin income generation business should significantly exceed initial projections, lifting full-year revenue in that segment to about $55 million from $40 million previously, a non-cash adjustment reflecting period-end price fluctuations purely short-term. The firm expects to file its full-year results on Feb. 16, leaving investors to reconcile stronger operations with a headline loss.
Under the hood, Metaplanet’s Bitcoin treasury strategy expanded sharply over the year. It said the treasury business continued to grow. The company is selling scale by tracking how much Bitcoin backs each diluted share. BTC holdings rose from 1,762 BTC at the end of 2024 to 35,102 BTC at the end of 2025. Metaplanet said BTC yield per diluted share reached 568% for the year, meaning the Bitcoin backing per diluted share increased by that amount. Because Bitcoin prices are hard to forecast, it does not give 2026 guidance for ordinary income or net income.
For 2026, Metaplanet forecasts revenue of around $103 million and operating income of $73 million for the year, with almost all revenue expected to come from the Bitcoin income generation business, and selling, general and administrative expenses of about $29 million. This guidance reads like an operating leverage play built around repeatable BTC income generation. The company also publishes daily data on its BTC holdings, unrealized gains and losses, and related metrics, a transparency posture meant to keep the market anchored as Bitcoin prices swing. The next catalyst is whether execution matches the upgraded forecast.
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