Micron Technology (MU) has been one of the standout names in the semiconductor rally that’s gripping Wall Street right now. The stock is up roughly 41% in April alone and has surged more than 500% over the past 12 months. That’s not a typo.
The rally isn’t just vibes. The numbers behind it are hard to argue with.
In fiscal Q2 2026, Micron reported revenue of $23.86 billion — compared to $8.05 billion in the same quarter a year earlier. Non-GAAP gross margin hit 74.9%, and non-GAAP EPS came in at $12.20. These aren’t incremental beats. They’re a company running at a different speed than it was a year ago.
For fiscal Q3 2026, management guided to roughly $33.5 billion in revenue, around 81% gross margin, and about $19.15 in non-GAAP EPS. That guidance has given analysts a reason to keep raising their targets, with some now sitting at $600 and above — implying upside of around 40% or more from current prices near $448.
The wider semiconductor picture is backing Micron up. The Nasdaq PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) has climbed around 34% over a 14-day winning streak, its best such run since 2002. TSMC raised its annual revenue forecast in April and flagged capital spending at the high end of its range. ASML also lifted its 2026 outlook. Two of the most important bellwethers in the supply chain are both pointing in the same direction.
Gartner put some bigger numbers on the industry backdrop. It expects global semiconductor revenue to jump 64% in 2026 to $1.32 trillion, with memory revenue tripling to $633.3 billion. DRAM prices are forecast to rise 125% this year. NAND prices, 234%. That’s the kind of pricing environment memory companies dream about.
What separates this rally from previous memory booms is the visibility Micron now has on demand. The company said it has completed price and volume agreements covering its entire calendar 2026 HBM supply — including HBM4. That’s unusual. Memory companies don’t typically operate with that kind of forward certainty.
Micron also said the HBM total addressable market could grow from around $35 billion in 2025 to roughly $100 billion by 2028. In March, it confirmed the start of high-volume production of HBM4 designed specifically for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform.
Analysts expect the supply shortage in memory and storage products to continue until at least mid-2026, giving Micron room to keep pushing prices higher.
Still, Micron is a memory company with a well-documented history of boom-and-bust cycles. Gartner flagged the risk of “memflation” — the idea that rising memory prices could actually delay non-AI demand into 2028. Supply will eventually catch up. It always does.
The stock is currently trading at around 21 times earnings, which reflects the market’s awareness that this kind of growth won’t last indefinitely.
BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky noted the SOX is trading more than 16% above its 50-day moving average — a level that has historically led to weaker short-term returns.
As of April 2026, Micron has completed agreements on price and volume for its full 2026 HBM supply and has begun high-volume HBM4 production for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform.
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