Circle’s USDC stablecoin has overtaken Tether’s USDT in adjusted transaction volume year-to-date, according to a research note from Japanese investment bank Mizuho released on Friday, March 13.
This marks the first time USDC has led in volume since 2019, ending a multi-year trend of USDT dominance in that category.
Mizuho’s analysis puts USDC at roughly $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume for the year to date. USDT came in at $1.3 trillion over the same period.
That gives USDC a 64% share of the adjusted volume between the two stablecoins, according to Mizuho.
The bank defined “adjusted volume” as transfers involving centralized exchanges, decentralized exchanges, and other labeled entities — or users who have not crossed certain activity thresholds. In short, transfers that look like a real person or institution actually moving money.
Examples the analysts gave include companies paying suppliers, users placing bets on prediction markets like Polymarket, and funds moving between a centralized exchange and a DeFi protocol.
Mizuho analysts said volume data matters more than market cap when predicting which stablecoin will win long term.
“We believe that longer term, the stablecoin winner will be the one mostly used in everyday economic activity, rather than just the highest market cap,” Mizuho wrote.
USDT still holds the lead in total market capitalization. Tether’s stablecoin sits at around $184 billion, compared to USDC’s $79 billion.
Circle went public on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025. Its stock price saw little movement following the Mizuho note.
Mizuho raised its price target for Circle from $100 to $120 as part of the same research note.
In Washington, legislation that could shape the stablecoin market remains stalled.
The CLARITY Act, which passed the House of Representatives, has been held up in the Senate. Debates over stablecoin yield, ethics rules, and tokenized equities have slowed progress.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said on Thursday that the Senate would prioritize a bill on voting requirements over digital asset market structure. He did not expect the market structure bill to pass before April.
The stalled legislation adds uncertainty to the broader stablecoin regulatory picture as Circle’s stock continues to trade on the NYSE.
As of the Mizuho note published March 13, 2026, USDC holds 64% of adjusted volume between the two major stablecoins, the first time it has led since 2019.
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