MongoDB (MDB) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Earnings Today

TLDR

• MongoDB reports Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings after the bell Tuesday, with analysts expecting EPS of $1.61 and revenue of $735.2 million.
• The stock has surged 34% over the past month to $453.37, trading near its 52-week high of $473.10.
• Atlas, MongoDB’s cloud database service, makes up 72-79% of total revenue and is the key metric to watch.
• Analysts rate MDB a Buy with a consensus price target of $446.26, though that now implies slight downside from current levels.
• Price targets have been raised recently by Cantor Fitzgerald to $540 and Guggenheim to $560, citing positive partner checks.

MongoDB reports fiscal Q2 2027 results after the market close Tuesday. Analysts are expecting EPS of $1.61 on revenue of $735.2 million.

That would mark a 22% sequential improvement in EPS and 7% revenue growth versus last quarter, when MongoDB beat bottom-line estimates by nearly 11%.

Year-over-year, those numbers represent 61% EPS growth and 24% revenue growth.

MongoDB, Inc., MDB

MDB stock is currently trading at $453.37, up 34% over the past month and sitting close to its 52-week high of $473.10.

The consensus analyst price target sits at $446.26, based on 41 estimates, meaning the stock is now trading slightly above where most analysts think it should be.

The breakdown: 32 Buy ratings, eight Holds, and one Sell.

Atlas Growth Is the Number That Matters

All eyes will be on Atlas, MongoDB’s managed cloud database service. It accounts for between 72% and 79% of total revenue and is the engine driving the company’s growth story.

Management guided for 26% Atlas growth this quarter. Analysts broadly expect a beat of two to three percentage points, which would be consistent with recent trends.

If Atlas growth pushes toward the 29%-30% range seen in prior quarters, the stock is likely to react positively. If it comes in closer to the low-20s range implied for the second half, expect pressure.

Last quarter, MongoDB added 96 enterprise customers spending more than $100,000 annually, bringing that total to 2,895. Investors will want to see that number keep climbing.

AI Workloads in Focus

The other big theme heading into Tuesday’s print is AI. MongoDB has been building out Vector Search, Voyage AI-powered retrieval models, and native AI agent integrations directly into its platform.

Analysts want to see evidence that these tools are converting from pilots into production revenue. Commentary on AI-native customer expansions and enterprise adoption will be closely watched.

In the data and analytics software sector more broadly, investor sentiment has been positive. Peer stocks are up around 14.2% on average over the past month, with MongoDB outpacing that at 24.8%.

For comparison, DigitalOcean posted 28.6% year-over-year revenue growth last quarter, beating estimates by 0.9%, while Commvault grew 11.4%, topping by 1.2%. Both traded lower after results despite the beats.

Second-half guidance will be the other key driver of Tuesday’s reaction. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $540 and Guggenheim moved to $560, but there is lingering skepticism about implied Atlas deceleration to 21%-23% in the back half of the fiscal year.

If management raises that second-half Atlas outlook above 25%, the stock could push higher. If guidance holds flat or disappoints, the recent rally could unwind quickly.

In Q1, MongoDB posted EPS of $1.32 versus the $1.19 estimate, with revenue of $687.6 million, beating forecasts by 3.6%. The company raised its full-year Atlas growth outlook by 200 basis points at that time.

EPS estimates have held flat over the past week but drifted slightly lower over the past 60 days. Revenue estimates have remained steady across both periods.

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