MP Materials shares climbed 1.8% Friday to close at $69.58. The move comes ahead of Monday’s expected announcement that the Trump administration is acquiring a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth as part of a $1.6 billion critical minerals package.
The deal puts fresh attention on the rare earth sector. Sources told Reuters the announcement will include an investor conference call to detail terms of the government investment.
MP has already gained 217% over the past year. Recent momentum shows 25.4% returns over 30 days and 24.4% year to date.
The stock now carries a market cap of roughly $12.33 billion. Friday’s session saw intraday trading between $66.25 and $70.45.
A discounted cash flow model estimates MP’s intrinsic value at $117.45 per share. That’s 41.8% above the current price of $68.37 based on recent analysis.
The company posted negative free cash flow of $294.49 million over the latest twelve months. Analysts project this will swing to positive $436 million by 2030.
MP’s price-to-book ratio stands at 6.17x. That’s well above the metals and mining industry average of 2.69x and peer group average of 4.01x.
The current P/E ratio sits at roughly negative 98, reflecting the company’s loss-making status. Street consensus expects this to flip in fiscal 2026 with earnings per share around $0.72.
MP secured a major win in July when the Defense Department became its largest shareholder. The deal included a price floor guaranteeing minimum prices for key rare earths.
Ryan Castilloux of Adamas Intelligence called it “a game changer for the ex-China industry.” The new USA Rare Earth deal could further validate government commitment to domestic supply chains.
Rare earths include 17 minerals crucial for magnets used in missiles and electric vehicle motors. Most processing currently happens outside the United States.
Matt Sloustcher, MP’s executive VP for corporate affairs, said in December the company will have “a significant magnet capacity online” within three years. Production plans involve General Motors and other clients.
However, the USA Rare Earth funding raises questions about competition. Rivals with deeper government backing might challenge MP’s position as the primary U.S. player.
Institutional positioning shows mixed signals. Baillie Gifford recently trimmed its stake despite the firm’s reputation for long-term growth investing.
Earlier quarters saw sizable insider selling from the CEO, CFO and others. This remains a concern even as the share price rallied.
Analyst sentiment stays constructive with thirteen Buy ratings, one Strong Buy, and one Sell for a “Moderate Buy” consensus. The average 12-month price target of $78.91 implies mid-teens upside.
Individual targets range from $71 at Morgan Stanley to $112 at Bank of America. DA Davidson set a target of $82.
Rare earth prices and project timelines remain unpredictable. Delays in processing or magnet production could strain cash flow and force outlook changes.
Monday’s USA Rare Earth investor call will clarify terms and timelines of the government deal. Any signals about follow-on federal agreements could move the sector.
MP’s next earnings report drops February 19, 2026. Analysts will look for evidence of operational turnaround and progress on magnet manufacturing plans.
The post MP Materials (MP) Stock: Government Doubles Down on Rare Earth Supply Chain appeared first on CoinCentral.
Also read: SanDisk (SNDK) Stock: Soars 1015% as AI Memory Crunch Reshapes Tech Markets
