Netflix (NFLX) stock is down roughly 19% year-to-date heading into its Q2 2026 earnings report on July 16. The stock is currently trading around $75.20, well off its 52-week high of $128.96.
The report could be a reset moment — or confirmation that more pain lies ahead.
Wall Street expects Netflix to post earnings per share of $0.79 for Q2 2026, up about 10% year-over-year. Revenue is forecast to rise 13.5% to $12.5 billion.
Netflix walked away from bidding on Warner Bros. Discovery assets earlier this year. The market cheered that decision initially, but the stock hasn’t been able to hold any gains since.
Management also flagged higher content costs in the first half of the year, which kept investors cautious.
Ad revenue will be one of the most closely watched figures on July 16. Netflix is targeting $3 billion in ad revenue for the full year, and Q2 results will show whether that’s still on track.
As subscription growth slows, advertising is becoming more than just a side revenue stream. It also helps cushion the blow from rising content costs.
If ad revenue is tracking ahead of that $3 billion target, investors may take it as a positive signal.
Ahead of earnings, Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon reiterated a Buy rating on NFLX but cut his price target to $100 from $110 — a roughly 9% reduction.
Yoon pointed to “subscriber growth pressure” as the reason for the downgrade in target. He also lowered his 2026 subscriber forecast by about three million and trimmed his EPS estimates accordingly.
Part of that pressure, the analyst says, could come from the FIFA World Cup in 2026, as viewers shift attention away from streaming during the tournament.
But Yoon sees the slowdown as temporary. He expects subscriber growth to pick back up in 2027, fueled by Netflix’s planned expansion of its ad-supported tier into 15 new markets.
He also lowered his valuation multiple from 29x to 26x to reflect near-term headwinds on investor sentiment.
Bernstein expects Netflix to increase cash content spending by more than $2 billion in 2026. Management has guided for roughly 10% content spending growth this year, following about 7% growth in 2025.
The firm believes that investment will translate into more hit content, a larger live sports lineup, and a deeper global library.
Across Wall Street, Netflix holds a Strong Buy consensus based on 24 Buy ratings and 8 Hold ratings, according to TipRanks. The average price target stands at $114.42, implying around 50% upside from current levels.
Content costs and ad revenue tracking will be the two clearest signals when Netflix reports on July 16.
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