Nvidia has been stuck in a rut. After years of being the market’s AI darling, NVDA has essentially gone nowhere since September 2025, grinding sideways in a $165–$195 band while investors wait for a catalyst to break the deadlock.
That catalyst may be forming. The stock rallied more than 10% over six straight sessions — its longest winning streak since October — before slipping again Thursday.
Wednesday’s 2.2% jump came after President Trump announced a two-week truce with Iran, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and calming fears of a broader economic shock. Nvidia led point gainers in the S&P 500 that day.
Thursday told a different story. The stock dipped around 0.5% to $181.75 as investors questioned whether the truce would hold. The S&P 500 was also flat on the day.
The geopolitical backdrop has been pulling risk appetite in and out of the market. Tehran still has the capability to block the Strait of Hormuz, which keeps traders on edge.
Underlying all of this is a longer-running debate: are the big hyperscalers — Microsoft, Google, Amazon — going to see real returns on their massive AI infrastructure spending? That question has kept a ceiling on NVDA for months.
Ishan Majumdar, founder of Baptista Research, told Barron’s that AI demand drivers remain intact. “Nothing about the cease-fire alters the structural AI demand story,” he said. “If anything, removing macro volatility allows the market to refocus on those fundamentals.”
Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, is keeping a close eye on the $185 level. “If Nvidia sustains above $185, I would say the money is ready to run back in,” he said. “The long-term trend remains positive.”
Buff Dormeier at Kingsview Partners thinks it may take more. He says NVDA needs to clear $200 to make a truly decisive move higher. “If we started to get a signal of that, we could easily be back to the races,” he said.
Dormeier also pointed out that valuation is looking more attractive. NVDA is trading at roughly 20 times forward earnings — well below its 10-year average multiple of around 36 — and is in line with the broader S&P 500. That’s a notable shift for a stock that used to carry a hefty premium.
Both technicians are careful to flag the downside. The $170 level is critical support. If the stock falls and closes below it again, that could signal further selling pressure.
“If we were to break under there, I think shares could fall down to $150,” Dormeier said.
Krinsky echoed the caution. “It doesn’t strike me as an all-clear that we recovered the $170 level so quickly,” he said. “If it moves back to that level and closes under it again, that would be a more telling signal that Nvidia is likely to continue lower.”
For now, Dormeier sees the short-term range as $165 support and $180 resistance. NVDA closed Wednesday at $182 and was last trading around $181.75 Thursday.
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