Nvidia (NVDA) heads into Wednesday’s earnings report on a seven-day winning streak, but history says the rally could hit a wall the moment results drop.
The stock closed at a record $235.75 on Thursday, up 4.4% on the day and 20% over the past week. By Friday premarket, it was already pulling back — down 2.5% to $229.80.
The run-up has been fuelled by a mix of factors: general AI spending enthusiasm, hopes of a deal that could reopen chip sales in China, and the disclosure that President Trump’s trust bought at least $1 million in Nvidia-linked securities in Q1.
But the biggest driver is Wednesday’s print.
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri raised his price target to $275 from $245 ahead of the report, keeping a Buy rating. His target is based on 19 times his forecast for Nvidia’s 2027 earnings. In his note, Arcuri flagged what he sees as surprising apathy from large long-only investors — which he thinks sets up well for a positive reaction if the numbers land.
The problem? Nvidia has beaten estimates three quarters in a row, and investors sold the stock each time after.
Nvidia’s results don’t just move its own stock. With a market cap of $5.7 trillion — a record for any company, and nearly $1 trillion ahead of second place — Nvidia carries more weight in cap-weighted indexes than any other name.
It makes up 8.6% of the SPY ETF. Apple, the next largest holding, sits at 6.9%.
Last week made the point clearly. Three-quarters of the S&P 500’s 2.3% weekly gain came from just five stocks: Nvidia, Micron, Apple, AMD, and Intel. Micron, AMD, and Intel each rose more than 25%. Nvidia’s comparatively modest 8% move was still the biggest single contributor to index gains — even as more than half of S&P 500 stocks fell.
That’s the kind of gravitational pull that makes Wednesday’s call a must-watch for anyone with money in the market.
The hyperscalers have set the table. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle all raised AI spending forecasts in their most recent earnings. Combined, the tech giants are now expected to spend more than $700 billion on AI infrastructure this year — up at least 60% from 2025.
Nvidia sits at the center of that spending wave. This year alone it has announced or expanded partnerships with OpenAI, Marvell, Corning, CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN. In most cases, Nvidia either invested in the partner or received the right to.
Corning, a glass maker, has become one of the S&P 500’s best performers this year on the back of fiber-optic demand from AI data centers — a sign of just how far the Nvidia effect reaches.
Arcuri noted in his UBS preview that “investor interest here is always obviously high,” but flagged an unusual sense of muted engagement ahead of this particular report — which he views as a potential setup for a strong market reaction.
Nvidia is set to report after the close on Wednesday, May 21.
The post Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Earnings Wednesday appeared first on CoinCentral.
