Nvidia stock opened at $202.81 Monday, clawing back some ground after a 2.2% drop Friday that nearly let Apple overtake it as the world’s most valuable company. Premarket trading had it up 1.3% at $205.50.
The stock has gained 18% over the past 12 months but has been hovering just above the $200 level. Its 52-week range sits between $164.07 and $236.54.
With Nvidia not reporting until the end of earnings season, the next few weeks belong to its customers. What those companies say about AI spending will likely do more for Nvidia’s stock than anything else right now.
Alphabet kicks things off Wednesday. Markets will be watching closely to see if Big Tech reaffirms its commitment to AI infrastructure — and specifically whether Nvidia chips remain the hardware of choice.
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh laid out the tension in a Sunday research note. He kept his Overweight rating and $330 price target but flagged that sentiment on the stock is “mixed.” The two main concerns: delays in the Vera Rubin chip ramp and growing competitive pressure.
Vinh isn’t alone in his bullish stance. The consensus across 53 analysts sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average target of $304.26. Robert W. Baird is the most aggressive with a $500 target.
Wedbush raised its target from $300 to $330 in May. BNP Paribas Exane moved from $270 to $285 around the same time. Only three analysts have a Hold rating.
Etched, a startup focused on inference chips, is reportedly set to raise a new funding round led by Jane Street that would push its valuation to around $20 billion — roughly four times its previous valuation. That’s a notable jump for a company going after Nvidia’s turf.
On the institutional side, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group cut its Nvidia position by 4.1% in Q1, selling around 2.6 million units. It still holds over 60 million, making Nvidia its largest single holding at 6.8% of its portfolio.
Insider selling has also picked up. Director Mark Stevens sold 885,000 units at $210.17 in June for roughly $186 million. Director Stephen Neal sold 15,500 units at $215.73 in early June. Insiders have sold a combined $410.6 million worth over the past 90 days.
On the positive side, Nvidia’s last earnings report beat expectations. It posted $1.87 EPS versus the $1.76 consensus, on revenue of $81.61 billion — up 85.2% year-over-year.
The board also approved an $80 billion buyback plan in May and raised its quarterly dividend to $0.25 per unit from $0.01.
Nvidia’s market cap sits at $4.91 trillion. The consensus analyst EPS estimate for the full fiscal year is $8.79.
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