Figma (FIG) stock trades at $21.87, down 81% over the past year.
Oppenheimer kicked off coverage of Figma on Wednesday with a Perform rating, meaning the firm expects the stock to move in line with the broader market over the next 12 to 18 months. No price target was attached to the initiation.
The firm acknowledged that Figma holds a leading spot in the digital design market, with what it called a “compelling value proposition” and a strong growth track record in software. Those are the positives.
But the concern is AI.
Oppenheimer warned that the industry’s shift toward AI technologies could moderate deal sizes and slow subscriber growth. The firm believes this risk is not being priced in properly at current valuation levels.
Figma currently trades at roughly 9x its forward twelve-month revenue estimate. Oppenheimer flagged this as stretched, given what it sees as increasing competitive pressure from native AI tools and large language model vendors moving into the design space.
The firm also spent time in its report mapping out the competitive landscape in digital design, suggesting it sees real threats on the horizon — not just theoretical ones.
To be fair, Figma’s most recent numbers were solid. The company reported Q4 revenue growth of 40% year-over-year, beating consensus. Non-GAAP gross margins came in at 86.2% and operating margins hit 14.5%, both ahead of estimates.
For fiscal 2026, Figma guided for 30% revenue growth — about 7 percentage points above what analysts had expected. That guidance impressed Piper Sandler, which kept its Overweight rating and $35 price target.
Stifel and RBC were more cautious. Stifel trimmed its target to $30 from $40 while keeping a Hold rating, pointing to concerns around AI-related margin pressure. RBC cut its target to $31 from $38, holding its Sector Perform rating.
On the competitive side, Google Labs recently announced updates to its Stitch design tool. That’s a direct challenge to Figma’s core product offering and the kind of native AI competition Oppenheimer flagged in its note.
With a major tech player stepping up activity in digital design, the competitive dynamics around Figma are shifting.
The stock is down 81% over the past year. Analyst price targets currently sit between $30 and $35 for the bulls, with neutral ratings clustering below that range.
Oppenheimer’s initiation adds another voice to the cautious camp, though it stops short of a bearish call.
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