BTC and ETH are under pressure with $5.3B in options set to expire Friday

TL;DR

• Options expiry: $5.3B in BTC and ETH options expire Friday, with maximum pain at $117K for BTC and $4,400 for ETH.
• Market sentiment: Bitcoin trades near $121K with a greed index at 70, while traders are split between $110K puts and $120K calls.
• ETH dynamics: Ethereum hovers at $4,350, facing liquidations but with potential rebound toward $4,600 after expiry.
  

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The crypto market is bracing for turbulence as $5.3 billion in BTC and ETH options are set to expire this Friday. With $4.3 billion tied to BTC and $940 million linked to ETH, traders are closely watching the “maximum pain” levels that could dictate short-term price swings. The expiry comes at a time of heightened volatility, with BTC hovering near $121,000 and ETH under pressure around $4,350.

Options Expiry Alert
Over $5.3B in crypto options are set to expire tomorrow.$BTC: $4.3B notional | Put/Call: 1.12 | Max Pain: $117K$ETH: $0.94B notional | Put/Call: 0.9 | Max Pain: $4,400

BTC traders are split between $110K puts and $120K calls, while ETH flows are more… pic.twitter.com/IgzyHTtBEv

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) October 9, 2025

Diverging signals from Deribit and IBIT

Deribit, the leading crypto options exchange, places BTC’s maximum pain point at $117,000, while IBIT’s data suggests $121,000. This divergence highlights a split in market sentiment, with Deribit reflecting more cautious positioning and IBIT showing a bullish tilt. On IBIT, call options stretch as high as $238,000, underscoring optimism among mainstream traders. Despite IBIT’s growing influence, Deribit’s Friday expiries remain a dominant short-term driver of volatility.

BTC sentiment swings toward greed

Bitcoin’s price action ahead of the expiry reflects a market leaning into greed. The fear and greed index surged to 70, climbing 10 points in a single day. Traders are split between $110,000 puts and $120,000 calls, creating a battleground that could trigger sharp moves. While Bitcoin recently set a record above $126,000, the expiry event may determine whether momentum continues or stalls.

ETH faces added pressure

ETH is trading near $4,350, showing sharper losses compared to BTC during downturns. Long positions have been liquidated into the $4,300 range, while liquidity clusters at $4,600 suggest potential for a rapid rebound post-expiry. ETH’s $4,400 maximum pain level adds another layer of uncertainty, leaving traders cautious about near-term direction.

Rising open interest and future outlook

Open interest on Deribit has rebuilt above $36 billion this month, signaling a growing appetite for options trading. IBIT’s rise, fueled by ETF activity, is reshaping the landscape, while CME prepares to launch 24/7 crypto futures and options in 2026. For now, the immediate focus is Friday’s expiry, which could dictate whether BTC and ETH extend their rallies or face renewed selling pressure.