Palantir (PLTR) trades near $174, giving it a market cap of $418 billion. That is about 16% below its record high of $207.52. At roughly 149 times earnings, the stock is pricing in a lot of future growth.
Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR
The math is straightforward. For PLTR to beat a 10%-per-year market return over the next five years, its market cap needs to grow to around $674 billion by mid-2031. Working backward from that number, assuming a 35x earnings multiple and ~50% profit margins in 2031, Palantir would need to hit about $38 billion in revenue. From its current full-year guidance of $8.15 billion, that works out to roughly 36% compounded annual growth.
That is the number everything hinges on.
The most recent quarter gave bulls a lot to work with. Q2 revenue came in at $1.94 billion, up 93% year over year and ahead of the $1.81 billion analyst estimate. EPS hit $0.41, beating the $0.34 consensus by $0.07.
U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% to $764 million. Remaining deal value in the U.S. commercial segment hit $6.2 billion, up 124% year over year. U.S. commercial contract value closed during the quarter set a record at $2.1 billion, up 153%.
Management raised guidance across the board. Q3 revenue is now expected around $2.16 billion. Full-year revenue guidance sits at $8.15 billion, implying 82% growth over 2025.
Palantir ended June with $9.2 billion in cash and short-term Treasuries.
The bull case is real, but so are the risks.
At 149 times earnings, the stock leaves almost no room for error. Even if growth stays strong, any slow quarter could hit the price hard.
Insider selling has picked up. Director Lauren Friedman Stat sold 3,032 shares at $165 on August 5. Insider Shyam Sankar sold 35,000 shares at $155.70 on August 6. Over the last quarter, insiders sold over 1.15 million shares worth around $156 million. All sales were made under pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plans.
ARK Invest also sold roughly $7.9 million worth of PLTR while shifting money toward Cerebras Systems.
On the analyst side, the average price target sits at $192.19, with a “Moderate Buy” consensus. Deutsche Bank upgraded PLTR to “buy” on August 4 with a $200 target. Rosenblatt holds a $225 target. Jefferies sits on the other side with an “underperform” rating and an $80 target.
Institutional investors own 45.65% of the stock. Vanguard holds over 215 million shares. State Street owns over 102 million.
The raised full-year outlook implies growth of 82%, which is actually below Q2’s 93% pace. Growth is still exceptional, but it is moving in one direction.
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