SpaceX (SPCX) stock is trading around $140.50 after a sharp post-earnings rally ran into its first major resistance level near $149. The stock has pulled back more than 4% in the past 24 hours, and not everyone thinks the worst is over.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Phillip Securities analyst Glenn Thum reiterated a Sell rating on August 17, keeping his 12-month price target at $75. That would represent a roughly 47% drop from current levels.
Thum’s concerns center on heavy capital expenditure, customer concentration in AI, and the temporary nature of some cloud contracts. He argues that a meaningful re-rating would require longer-term customer commitments.
SpaceX’s Q2 2026 results were hard to argue with on the surface. Total revenue jumped 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion. Connectivity revenue rose 66% to $4.3 billion, with Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million. AI revenue surged 247% to $2.6 billion, driven by new cloud and infrastructure deals.
Scott Galloway, the NYU marketing professor and podcaster, went further than Thum. He said on a podcast released Monday that SpaceX is worth between $10 and $30 per share.
“It’s still crazy overvalued,” Galloway said. “I think this is a $10 to $30 stock.”
His lower estimate would value SPCX at less than 7% of its current price. Even his upper estimate puts the stock at roughly one-fifth of where it trades today.
Galloway pointed to limited float as a key driver of the initial surge. Only about 4% to 5% of SpaceX’s stock was available for public trading at IPO, which constrained supply. Its fast-track addition to the Nasdaq-100 then pushed index funds to buy in.
He also flagged a $25 billion bond offering priced shortly after the IPO, despite SpaceX holding $100.8 billion in cash. He said this signals the company’s growth increasingly depends on borrowed money.
George Noble, formerly of Fidelity Overseas Fund, called SpaceX one of “the best shorts in the market.” He predicted the stock could fall as much as 50% by year-end and said it should trade around $30.
“Grandma’s 401(k) now owns a $2 trillion company at roughly 90 times revenues. That’s outrageous,” Noble said.
Noble also criticized how quickly SPCX was added to the Nasdaq-100, arguing the move artificially inflated demand.
Galloway said he would not personally short the stock. He acknowledged that Musk’s ability to generate excitement could push SPCX higher regardless of fundamentals, and that it could behave like a meme stock if Musk unveiled another headline-grabbing project.
The broader Wall Street picture is more optimistic. Of 31 analysts tracked by TipRanks, the average 12-month price target sits at $232.35, suggesting a potential 64% upside. The highest target on record is $800.
SPCX’s market cap stands at approximately $1.9 trillion at time of publication.
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