Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley initiated coverage of SoFi Technologies (SOFI) on Monday with an Overweight rating and a $22 price target. At current levels near $18.33, that implies roughly 19% upside.
The call puts Moley firmly in the minority on Wall Street. Of 27 analysts tracked by FactSet, 13 have SoFi at Hold and five have it at Sell. Only nine rate the stock a Buy.
SoFi is up around 0.4% on Monday, trading near $18.36.
Moley’s price target is based on roughly 25 times his fiscal 2027 earnings estimate. Piper Sandler forecasts SoFi will bring in $4.89 billion in revenue and earn 63 cents per share in 2026. For 2027, it projects $6.14 billion in revenue and 88 cents per share in earnings.
The bull case rests on two main pillars: a large and underpenetrated lending and debt-consolidation market, and a product ecosystem that is pulling customers deeper into the platform over time.
CEO Anthony Noto told Barron’s that existing members accounted for more than half of all new products opened in Q2. Product growth hit 43% year-over-year in the quarter, outpacing member growth of 35%. Moley sees that gap as evidence that customers are adopting multiple SoFi products, boosting lifetime value.
SoFi has expanded well beyond its lending origins. It now offers checking and savings accounts, investing products, credit cards, and insurance. Moley describes this as a financial “one-stop shop” strategy designed to deepen customer engagement over time.
Moley’s case for SoFi leans heavily on the refinancing opportunity. SoFi targets consumers in their late 20s to early 40s with strong credit profiles and substantial credit card or student loan balances.
SoFi offers annual percentage rates up to 50% lower than typical credit cards. Moley argues that positions the company well to capture refinancing demand as rates reprice, calling credit card and student loan refinancing “two products that align closely with the liability profile” of its target customers.
SoFi’s total capital ratio stood at 18.8% at the end of Q2, with SoFi Bank’s ratio at 15.3%. Both sit well above the 10.5% regulatory minimum, giving the company room to grow its lending book.
Piper Sandler forecasts 22% compound annual revenue growth from 2026 through 2028, and 27% adjusted EBITDA growth over the same period.
Still, the firm flagged several risks, including rising credit losses, interest-rate volatility, dilutive acquisitions, and heavy spending with limited near-term revenue benefits.
The stock remains down nearly 30% year-to-date, weighed down earlier in the year by a short-seller report that accused SoFi of running a “financial engineering treadmill.” The stock has since recovered 18% over the past three months.
Piper Sandler said SoFi’s current price offers an “attractive entry point” for long-term investors, arguing the company “deserves a premium multiple to peers” based on its banking penetration and higher-income customer base.
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