TL;DR:
Spain’s Official State Gazette published the opening of an investigation against Polymarket and Kalshi, after the Ministry of Consumer Affairs determined that both platforms operate in Spain as gambling services without the administrative license required by Spanish law. The blocking order was issued as a precautionary measure and will remain in force for the three to four months the sanction process is estimated to last.
According to the ministry, attempts at direct notification to the companies at their known addresses abroad proved unsuccessful, so the communication was made through the Official State Gazette. The Directorate General for Gambling Regulation (DGOJ) noted that the platforms allow bets on uncertain future events without meeting basic obligations such as minor access controls, protection of self-excluded users and identity verification.
Spain’s block is far from coincidental. Prediction markets are being hit with sanctions across multiple countries. In recent weeks, the case of U.S. soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke came to light — he won $400,000 betting on Polymarket on a military intervention in Venezuela that he himself helped plan. French authorities also opened an investigation into the alleged manipulation of temperature sensors at Charles de Gaulle Airport, coinciding with open positions on the platform.
On the regulatory front, the debate over the nature of these markets remains unresolved. In Europe, no specific framework exists to regulate them. In the United States, the dispute pits individual states, which classify them as gambling, against the federal government, which treats them as financial instruments under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Despite the accumulation of restrictions, Polymarket and Kalshi continue to dominate their market. Over the past 30 days, Kalshi recorded nearly $5.9 billion in trading volume and Polymarket around $3.8 billion, together representing nearly 88% of the sector’s total volume, according to DeFiLlama data. Spain joins a list that already includes Indonesia, India, Brazil, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Australia, among others.
