Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Stock Rises 7% on Strong Q3 Outlook After Q2 Earnings

TLDR

• Q2 EPS came in at -$0.20, missing estimates by $0.01; revenue of $5.2B met expectations
• CLF stock rose nearly 7% in pre-market trading after the earnings release
• Adjusted EBITDA tripled quarter-over-quarter to $286 million in Q2
• Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance of ~$575 million, more than double Q2 and well above analyst forecasts
• Full-year steel shipment guidance maintained at 16.5–17.0 million net tons

Cleveland-Cliffs stock closed at $9.45 before earnings, down 3.18% over the past three months and down 13.38% over the past year. Despite the recent slide, the Q2 report sent the stock up 6.88% in pre-market trading.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., CLF

The company posted an adjusted loss of $0.20 per share for Q2, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.19 by just $0.01. Revenue hit $5.2 billion, matching analyst expectations and up 9% from $4.8 billion in Q2 2025.

The earnings miss was barely a miss. The real story is what happened underneath — and what comes next.

$CLF Earnings:

– Revenues of $5.2 billion, a $300 million increase from the prior quarter
– Operating cash flow of $230 million
– GAAP net loss of $134 million and adjusted net loss of $115 million
– Adjusted EBITDA of $286 million, a $191 million increase from the prior quarter… pic.twitter.com/jajoGijrFx

— AlphaSense (@AlphaSenseInc) July 23, 2026

Adjusted EBITDA came in at $286 million for the quarter, tripling from $95 million in Q1. CEO Lourenco Goncalves noted that this improvement came even as the company dealt with extended maintenance outages in April and May.

“The second quarter marked another step in returning to the earnings power this company is capable of,” Goncalves said.

Steel product sales volumes for Q2 totaled 4.0 million net tons. The automotive market made up 29% of direct sales. The average net selling price per ton rose to $1,124, up from $1,048 in Q1.

Q3 Guidance Drives the Rally

The Q3 outlook is what moved the stock. Cleveland-Cliffs guided for adjusted EBITDA of approximately $575 million in Q3 — more than double the Q2 result and well ahead of what analysts had expected.

Goncalves said the domestic market is showing improving demand, subdued imports, and extending lead times.

The company also kept its full-year steel shipment guidance unchanged at 16.5 to 17.0 million net tons.

Cleveland-Cliffs reported liquidity of $3.1 billion as of June 30, 2026. The company expects to reach its leverage target of under 2.5x debt to EBITDA within a year.

EPS Revisions Leaned Negative

In the 90 days leading up to the report, Cleveland-Cliffs saw zero positive EPS revisions and five negative ones. InvestingPro rates the company’s financial health as “fair performance.”

The pre-market jump to $10.26, up $0.81 or 8.60%, reflects how much weight investors are putting on the Q3 guidance rather than the Q2 shortfall.

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