TL;DR
Bitcoin continues to struggle at familiar levels even as broader risk markets surge, according to the latest report from Bitfinex. Over the past two weeks, equities have pushed to fresh all‑time highs, while BTC has repeatedly failed to close daily above $65,000. The contrast highlights a widening performance gap, one shaped by liquidity, supply dynamics and a stubborn cost‑basis band that keeps price locked in place.
Between 5 and 10 August, BTC printed six consecutive daily highs above $65,000, yet every attempt was rejected before the close. The last daily finish above that level came on 26 July. This mirrors July’s behaviour, when the market broke $63,000 seven times only to reclaim it each time. The pattern suggests that buyers are unable to generate sustained momentum and that sellers remain active at the top of the range.
Spot volumes reinforce the picture. Two of the weakest sessions in the past 30 days occurred on 8 and 9 August, with only 118 and 165 BTC traded on Bitfinex. By contrast, Monday’s 2.41% decline and Tuesday’s 1.95 percent drop saw roughly triple the daily volume, indicating stronger participation during downside moves. The imbalance suggests limited conviction and increases the likelihood that BTC will remain trapped in the $62,000‑$65,000 band until a meaningful catalyst emerges.
The boundaries of the range are defined by ownership. The $62,000‑$65,000 zone contains 1,794,308 BTC in cost basis, representing 8.93% of circulating supply. The largest cluster sits near $63,800, creating a dense pocket where holders frequently flip between profit and loss. As price oscillates inside the band, coins change hands without producing directional follow‑through. A breakout requires fresh demand or a reduction in available supply, neither of which materialised this week.
Long‑term holder supply offers the clearest shift. This cohort saw its first weekly decline of 2026, dropping roughly 210,000 BTC from the 29 July peak of 16.82 million BTC. The move reflects genuine loss‑taking among younger long‑term holders, though part of the decline stems from custody migration after the Coldcard incident.
Even so, the reduction marks the largest two‑week drop since December 2024, underscoring that supply dynamics are finally changing. Despite the tightening range and shifting supply profile, BTC options markets are pricing today’s CPI release as largely inconsequential. With absolute volumes thinning and repeated failures at $65,000, traders appear to be bracing for continued consolidation rather than a volatility shock.
