TL;DR
On February 24, 2026, Bitcoin’s on-chain data sent a clear warning to markets. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, measured by its 90-day moving average, dropped below 1.0 — a level that historically only appears during the deepest phases of bear markets. In plain terms: most people who sold Bitcoin in recent months did so at a loss, not a gain.
Bitcoin’s price hovers around $63,200, reflecting a 29% decline over the past month and nearly 50% below its all-time high. BTC erased all the gains accumulated after the 2024 U.S. elections and returned to a zone of high uncertainty.
UPDATE:
The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA) has now fallen below 1, confirming a full transition into an excess loss-realization regime.
Historically, breaks below 1 have persisted for 6+ months before reclaiming it, a recovery that typically signals a constructive… https://t.co/nzdIG5LkEX pic.twitter.com/uYvZ6i99fA— glassnode (@glassnode) February 24, 2026
The seven-day average for net realized losses reached approximately $500 million per day according to Glassnode data, and some CryptoQuant estimates push that figure closer to $2.3 billion per week, placing the event among the largest in Bitcoin’s history. The numbers reflect forced selling and panic selling — the kind of broad exit that analysts call capitulation.
The Unspent Profitability Ratios of large holders — commonly known as whales — dropped to levels comparable to May and June of 2022, a period that preceded an even steeper decline before the market formed its definitive bottom. When traders with the greatest capacity to hold also exit at a loss, price pressure intensifies across every segment of the market.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reinforces that chart: it registered a score of 5 out of 100, classified as “Extreme Fear” — a reading that only appeared on a handful of occasions since 2018.
On the technical side, analyst Ali Martinez flagged the potential formation of a “death cross” on the three-day chart, a pattern in which the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term one. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, that pattern preceded additional declines of between 30% and 50%.
Crypto Economy analysts are watching the $60,000 to $63,000 range as a key support zone. If Bitcoin loses that level, cascading liquidations could open the door to ranges between $55,000 and $47,000.
Also read: Mapping XRP’s road to $0.78 after $45M inflow shock hits market
