TL;DR:
For the first time in nearly a century, the U.S. legal framework allows the commercialization of contracts linked to election results. In our time, prediction markets have become a source of information on par with traditional polls for measuring candidates’ chances of victory.
The importance of prediction platforms has reached the point of influencing campaign strategies. Data from Polymarket reveals that it processed more than 413 million individual bets, with open positions exceeding $100 million in specific political races.
In this regard, Emory University professor Zachary Peskowitz stated that these contracts offer more dynamic odds than conventional surveys. A report authored by him suggests that the interpretation of these markets allows for the assignment of probability percentages almost in real-time, affecting the public and media perception of U.S. politics.
During the 2026 primaries, candidates in states like Kentucky and Georgia monitored their market shares to adjust their speeches. In Georgia’s 14th District, the flow of capital on sites like Kalshi served to measure the level of influence of key figures within the Republican Party.
The effectiveness of these services lies in the financial incentive. Researcher Andra Gillespie indicates that individuals tend to be more honest when money is involved, unlike the answers provided in opinion polls, where social desirability bias often intervenes.
The sector’s growth has not been without legal scrutiny. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) determined in March 2026 that prediction markets must be treated as financial derivatives. This decision subjects platforms to strict laws against insider trading and market manipulation.
The Kalshi platform recently implemented a ban preventing lawmakers and government employees from participating in election betting. This measure seeks to mitigate potential conflicts of interest, especially in contracts linked to legislative decisions or election results where the operator has direct influence.
On the other hand, jurisdictional disputes persist between states and federal agencies. In May 2026, the CFTC filed legal appeals before appellate courts to defend its exclusive authority over these markets, facing states like Ohio that consider these activities as unauthorized sports betting.
From now on, the sector awaits the entry into force of the MiCA regulation in the European Union in July 2026, which will force crypto-based platforms to obtain formal licenses to operate in that territory, marking the end of their regulatory grace period.
