Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is set to report its first-quarter 2026 results on May 11, after market close. With the stock currently trading around $18.34, options traders are bracing for a sharp reaction.
The implied move from the options market sits at 17.56% in either direction. That’s more than double RGTI’s average post-earnings swing of 7.46% over the past four quarters.
RGTI has had a bumpy ride this year. The stock is up over 32% in the past month, but it remains down about 17% year to date as investors stay cautious on riskier growth names.
Wall Street expects Rigetti to report a loss of $0.04 per share for Q1, which would be an improvement from the $0.08 loss in the same period last year. Revenue is expected to come in at $4.09 million, though the Zacks consensus puts the estimate slightly lower at $3.25 million.
In its last reported quarter, Rigetti delivered an earnings surprise of 40%. The company has beaten estimates in three of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 9.17%.
A few things will get close attention on May 11.
First, hardware revenue. Investors will want to see progress on Rigetti’s $8.4 million order from India’s C-DAC for a 108-qubit system, plus $5.7 million in orders for two 9-qubit Novera systems expected to ship in the first half of 2026.
The launch of Rigetti’s 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system is another talking point. It became available on Rigetti’s own cloud platform and on Amazon Braket last month — making it the first 100+ qubit superconducting system on AWS.
Fidelity progress will also be in focus. Rigetti recently reported 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at 28-nanosecond gate speed using its Adiabatic CZ gate scheme. The company’s goal is to reach 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity later this year, with a longer-term roadmap targeting systems exceeding 1,000 qubits.
Cash burn is always on the radar for pre-revenue quantum companies. Rigetti holds roughly $590 million in cash and carries no debt, which gives it room to keep investing in R&D and system development.
RGTI trades at a price-to-book ratio of 12.22, above peers IonQ (5.05) and D-Wave Quantum (10.34). The premium reflects higher growth expectations baked into the stock.
Wall Street holds a Moderate Buy consensus on RGTI, based on eight Buy ratings and three Holds. The average price target of $30.67 implies around 67% upside from current levels.
Rigetti carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) heading into the print, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, meaning the model doesn’t flag a strong beat signal this quarter.
Peer quantum names IonQ and D-Wave Quantum are also set to report in the coming weeks.
The most recent technical milestone — 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at 28 nanoseconds — was flagged by management as a key marker in its roadmap toward larger-scale commercial systems.
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