Rocket Lab (RKLB) is due to report its Q1 2026 earnings after the bell today, May 7. Heading in, RKLB stock is at $84.65, up 7.5% from Wednesday’s session — and more than 25% higher over the past month.
Wall Street is expecting a loss of $0.07 per share for the quarter, a big improvement from the $0.12 loss recorded in Q1 2025. Revenue is forecast to come in around $189–$191 million, representing more than 50% year-over-year growth.
Despite the expected loss, the growth trajectory is hard to ignore.
Options traders are pricing in a 13.59% swing in either direction following the print. That’s well above the stock’s historical average post-earnings move of just 4.65%, suggesting the market sees this as a high-stakes report.
Rocket Lab has beaten earnings estimates in only one of the past four quarters, missing in three — with an average surprise of just 4.29%.
Beyond the headline numbers, the real focus this quarter is the Neutron rocket program. Neutron is a 43-meter, partially reusable rocket designed for satellite and cargo missions.
If it delivers as expected in late 2026 or early 2027, it would put Rocket Lab in direct competition with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 — a market that carries significantly higher margins.
Any updates from management on Neutron’s timeline and development milestones will be closely watched.
Rocket Lab’s Q1 results may also reflect contributions from two recent acquisitions — Optical Support, Inc. (OSI) and Precision Components Limited (PCL). Both are expected to have strengthened its defense and satellite manufacturing capabilities.
Rocket Lab ended Q4 2025 with a record $1.85 billion backlog. The company expects roughly 37% of that to convert within 12 months — though supplier timing remains a risk that could shift revenue recognition into later periods.
GAAP gross margin came in at 34.4% in 2025. Investors will want to see that moving in the right direction, with ongoing R&D and Neutron development costs continuing to pressure the bottom line.
The company trades at a steep 46x forward price-to-sales, compared to an industry average of just 11.64x.
That premium leaves little room for error. Trailing 12-month return on invested capital (ROIC) is also negative — meaning current investments are not yet covering their costs.
TipRanks data shows RKLB holds a Moderate Buy consensus with 9 Buy ratings and 4 Holds over the past three months. The average analyst price target is $89.00, implying about 5.14% upside from current levels.
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