Super Micro Computer reports Q4 earnings after the bell on Tuesday, and Wall Street is watching closely. The stock closed at $31.46 on Monday, up 1.1%, with trading volume running 26% above the daily average.
Super Micro Computer, Inc., SMCI
Analysts expect adjusted EPS of $1.33 on revenue of $11.2 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. That compares to EPS of $0.41 and revenue of $5.7 billion in the same quarter last year.
Gross margins are forecast to reach 15.8%, up 9.6% year over year. Supermicro itself guided for margins between 15% and 17%, a big jump from prior guidance of just 8.2% to 8.4%.
The margin upgrade, announced late last month as part of a preliminary business update, sent SMCI stock soaring more than 20% at the time.
The company also disclosed more than $60 billion in new Q4 orders, fueling optimism around AI-server demand. Options traders leaned heavily toward calls ahead of the report, a sign some are positioned for an upside surprise.
CEO Charles Liang announced in June that Supermicro plans to co-build a gigawatt-scale data center for SpaceX and xAI within a year. That kind of high-profile project adds credibility to the order pipeline.
Needham raised its price target to $46 with a Buy rating. Barclays moved its target up to $38, keeping an equal weight rating. The consensus average price target sits at $39.21, well above the current stock price.
Four analysts have a Buy rating on SMCI, twelve say Hold, and two say Sell. The consensus rating is Hold.
Despite the strong order numbers, the balance sheet has some rough edges. Operating cash flow came in at negative $7.56 billion, while inventories and receivables have both expanded sharply.
Investors are asking a fair question: if business is booming, where is the cash? Bulls want to see margin and cash flow improvement, not just a top-line beat.
There is also uncertainty about whether all reported orders represent firm commitments. A buildup of finished-goods inventory raises obsolescence risk if product mix shifts or demand softens.
In June, Supermicro raised up to $7 billion in equity-linked financing to fund its AI build-out, adding to concerns about dilution and leverage.
The company is also navigating a regulatory situation. In April, Supermicro launched an independent investigation after the Department of Justice indicted co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw and two others for allegedly violating US export controls. Supermicro was not named as a defendant.
Over the past 12 months, SMCI is down roughly 30%, while HPE is up around 160% and Dell has gained more than 230%.
The stock has a beta of 1.95, a PE ratio of 16.65, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88.
Supermicro reports Q4 results after market close on Tuesday, August 12.
The post Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Earnings Today appeared first on CoinCentral.
