SanDisk (SNDK) has been the standout story of 2026. The stock surged 726% in the first half of the year — more than double the S&P 500’s second-best performer, Micron, which rose 266%.
SNDK opened Thursday at $1,599.27, down sharply from its 52-week high of $2,354.39 hit on June 22. That’s a pullback of more than 30% in roughly a month.
The rally was driven by a perfect storm: soaring AI data center demand, constrained NAND supply following 2023 production cuts, and strong adoption of SanDisk’s BiCS8 storage chips. Data center revenue jumped 233% sequentially in Q3 alone.
The BiCS8 chips pack 15%–19% more data into a smaller footprint than competing solutions. They also use roughly 13% less power — a real selling point for power-hungry AI data centers.
Q3 numbers backed up the hype. Revenue nearly doubled to $5.95 billion, non-GAAP gross margin expanded from 51.1% to 78.4%, and adjusted EPS came in at $23.41 — smashing the $14.17 consensus estimate by $9.24.
SanDisk also generated around $3 billion in free cash flow in the quarter, holds a debt-free balance sheet, and has authorized a $6 billion buyback.
For Q4, the company guided revenue of $7.75B–$8.25B — a 30%–39% sequential jump — and EPS of $30–$33. Non-GAAP gross margins are expected to land between 79% and 81%.
Analyst opinion is overwhelmingly positive, though targets vary widely. Bernstein raised its target to $3,000 from $1,700 with an Outperform rating, pointing to long-term supply agreements it says provide meaningful downside protection. The firm estimates pricing floors of roughly $0.29 per gigabyte across contracts spanning three to five years.
Susquehanna is the most bullish on the Street, lifting its target to $3,250 with a Buy rating. It sees NAND pricing rising 75%–100% based on its industry checks.
Bank of America’s Wamsi Mohan raised his target to $2,500 from $2,100, expecting strong pricing conditions to hold through mid-2027.
Morgan Stanley kept its Outperform rating and raised its target to $1,750, citing a memory shortage with “no quick fix” given how long it takes to build new manufacturing clean rooms.
Goldman Sachs sits at the more cautious end, maintaining a Buy with a $1,200 target. The consensus across 26 analysts sits at $1,820.90, with 18 Buy ratings, 2 Strong Buys, and 6 Holds.
Bears have a few credible arguments. Historically, semiconductor shortages lead to double-ordering, and when capacity catches up, prices can fall fast.
Hyperscaler capex is also set to slow. UBS estimates spending grows 76% this year but only 25% next year and 6% in 2028. That deceleration matters for a stock priced for hypergrowth.
Competition is building. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Chinese manufacturers are all investing in new capacity. SK Hynix’s recent Nasdaq listing could also pull capital away from SNDK.
On the insider side, EVP Alper Ilkbahar sold 2,000 shares in June at $1,756.58, and insider Bernard Shek sold 600 shares in July at $2,088. Insiders have sold $10.1 million worth of stock over the last three months.
SNDK’s next earnings report is August 5, with an Investor Day scheduled for August 13.
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