SoFi Technologies (SOFI) heads into Wednesday’s Q2 earnings report in a tough spot. The stock is down nearly 38% year to date, trading around $16.88 — far closer to its 52-week low of $14.92 than its high of $32.73.
Wall Street expects EPS of $0.11, up 37.5% year over year, on revenue of $1.13B — a 31.7% jump from the same period last year. That said, it would still be a slight step back from Q1, when SoFi posted EPS of $0.12 and revenue of $1.10B.
The Q1 revenue figure beat estimates by $50M, and the company added 1.1 million new members during the quarter. Investors will want to see that momentum carry through.
Of the 23 analysts covering SOFI, 7 rate it a buy, 12 a hold, and 4 a sell. The consensus price target sits at $20.63, implying around 22% upside from current levels.
Seeking Alpha analysts are more optimistic, rating the stock a Strong Buy. Analyst Krzysztof Bogdanski put a fair value of $22–$26 on the stock, pointing to strong product-per-member growth and fee diversification.
In contrast, Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating has SOFI at Sell, and Truist rates it Hold with a price target of $18.
Truist analyst Matthew Coad flagged the second half of 2026 as a potential headwind. He pointed to decelerating personal loan originations industry-wide and declining private credit demand for longer-duration consumer loans as risks to SoFi’s origination growth and gain-on-sale rate.
The biggest number to watch may not be revenue. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for Q2 is around 30%, compared to 31.3% in Q1. SoFi’s long-term target is approximately 38%, so the gap between where they are and where they want to be remains wide.
Any upside surprise on margins could be a catalyst for the beaten-down stock. Any miss would likely add pressure.
CFO Chris Lapointe guided for adjusted net income margin of 12%–13% for Q2, translating to roughly $0.10–$0.11 in EPS — right in line with consensus.
SoFi posted record loan originations of $12.18B in Q1, up 68% year over year. That’s a high bar to clear heading into Q2.
The company also recently launched Composer by SoFi, an AI-powered investing platform that lets users build and execute investment strategies using plain language.
Member cross-sell data will also be closely watched. In Q1, 43% of new products were taken up by existing members — a key metric for the company’s long-term economics.
Over the last two years, SoFi has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and revenue estimates 100% of the time. Over the past three months, EPS estimates have seen no upward revisions and seven downward, while revenue estimates saw two up and 14 down.
SoFi trades at a forward P/E of 27 with projected EPS growth of 62%.
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