Rocket Lab (RKLB) has been quietly building its launch record while the market fixates on SpaceX’s upcoming IPO. On April 22, Rocket Lab launched eight satellites into orbit for Japan’s space agency JAXA — its second dedicated JAXA mission in just a few months and its 8th launch of the year.
CEO Peter Beck called Electron “the preferred small launcher for national space agencies.” The payloads included an ocean-monitoring satellite, an educational satellite, a multispectral camera demo, and a deployable origami-style antenna that unfolds to 25 times its packed size.
It was a clean execution. And the timing matters.
SpaceX executives reportedly met with bankers last week to plan a June IPO. The target valuation is $1.75 trillion — that would make it the eighth-largest company in the world, ahead of Tesla and Meta. Retail investors could get a 30% allocation, far above the typical 5–10%.
That high retail allocation has raised eyebrows. Analysts worry it could push SpaceX stock to trade like a meme stock, with valuation disconnected from fundamentals.
Private market research firm Sacra estimates SpaceX revenue grew 18% in 2025. That sounds decent until you compare it to 51% growth in 2024 and 89% in 2023. The deceleration is hard to ignore.
Then there’s the xAI deal. SpaceX acquired Elon Musk’s AI company in February for $250 billion in stock. The AI sector is brutally competitive, and the move has already cost money. The Information reported SpaceX lost $5 billion in 2025, mostly tied to AI-related spending.
Investors buying in at a $1.75 trillion valuation are pricing in a lot of future growth from a company that is already slowing down and absorbing heavy losses.
Rocket Lab carries a $49 billion market cap and a price-to-sales ratio of 74. That is expensive by any measure. At that multiple, the stock needs everything to go right.
The company’s next big catalyst is the Neutron rocket, a larger vehicle designed to compete more directly with SpaceX’s Falcon 9. It is expected to launch later in 2026. Any delays could hit the stock hard.
RKLB has traded between $20.23 and $99.58 over the past 52 weeks, which tells you how volatile this name can be. Gross margin sits at 31.66%.
Still, at $49 billion versus $1.75 trillion, Rocket Lab offers more runway for growth in percentage terms — if execution holds.
The JAXA mission marked Rocket Lab’s second dedicated launch for the agency in just a few months, following December 2025’s RAISE-4 mission.
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