SpaceX (SPCX) stock dropped 6.4% to $130.66 in midday Thursday trading, slipping below its $135 IPO price after CEO Elon Musk pushed back the timeline for catching the Starship upper stage with the launch tower.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Musk posted on X that the company would “probably catch the ship with the tower in a few months,” walking back expectations that the milestone would come on the next test flight.
Looks like we will probably catch the ship with the tower in a few months. If there had been a tower out to sea where we practiced landing the ship, it would have been caught.
First reflight of the ship will be either end of this year or early next. That will be a fork in the… https://t.co/O5g9pqrzyo
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 20, 2026
The 14th Starship test, expected later this month, was supposed to feature that upper stage catch. SpaceX had already pulled off the same trick with the Super Heavy booster back in October 2024 during Flight 5, using the giant mechanical “Mechazilla” arms at its Starbase, Texas facility.
The booster catch was repeated on later flights, including Flight 7, building confidence in the system. Catching the upper stage is a tougher challenge, given it returns from much higher speeds and heat loads after near-orbital flight.
Musk also noted that the first reflight of a Starship vehicle is expected by end of 2026 or early 2027.
The S&P 500 was down 0.5% on the day, so SpaceX’s drop significantly outpaced the broader market.
William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma pushed back on the sell-off. In a Thursday note, he said the delay is “not that consequential” because SpaceX is “likely a full decade ahead of peers” on rocket reusability.
DiPalma rates the stock Outperform with no specific price target. At William Blair, that essentially means the analyst expects the stock to beat the market.
He acknowledged the timing shift but pointed to the broader progress: Starship is still moving toward full reusability, which would allow both rocket stages to return to the launch pad, be refueled, and fly again quickly.
That rapid reusability is the core of SpaceX’s cost reduction pitch, with Musk claiming it could cut the price of reaching orbit by a factor of 100 or more.
SpaceX stock has been volatile since its record-setting June IPO. Thursday’s drop is one of the sharper single-day moves since the listing.
Starship progress matters beyond just the test campaign. SpaceX is targeting 2027 for the launch of its Starmind AI computing satellites, and Starship is likely needed to put those into orbit.
SpaceX believes data centers in space, powered by those satellites, will give it a meaningful AI advantage over competitors limited to ground-based infrastructure.
The 13th Starship test in July was described as a success. SpaceX said mission data would determine whether a catch attempt would follow on the next flight, but Musk’s latest post signals that timeline has shifted.
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