SpaceX (SPCX) stock climbed 0.8% to $141.14 in premarket trading on Monday, with another tranche of insider stock set to unlock on Aug. 20.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
About 319 million units held by early investors and insiders will become available to trade later this week. This is part of a laddered unlock schedule SpaceX put in place following its IPO in early June.
SpaceX raised around $75 billion when it sold roughly 556 million new units to the public, a small slice of the approximately 13.2 billion units outstanding.
Supply and demand dynamics have played a big role in early price action. Investors have been cautious buying ahead of potential selling by early backers, which pushed the stock below $105 in July, well under the $135 IPO price.
The stock bounced back sharply after SpaceX reported second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4. It rose 23% in that week alone, then added another 5% the following week, snapping a four-week losing streak.
Q2 revenue came in at $7.8 billion, a 92% jump year-over-year. AI-related revenue was a standout, rising 247% to $1.6 billion, driven by new Cloud Services Agreements.
UBS analyst John Hodulik reiterated a Buy rating and $210 price target on Monday. He pointed to SpaceX’s position as both a major cloud provider and frontier AI model developer as reasons for confidence.
The firm is watching for an inflection in growth when SpaceX reaches critical mass of V3 fixed broadband satellites, expected sometime next year. UBS currently models U.S. Starlink subscribers growing from 3 million today to 6 million by end of 2027, and 20 million by end of 2031.
SpaceX also flagged a femtocell strategy on its earnings call, which involves deploying small radios built into next-generation Starlink terminals. The goal is to cover areas the V2 mobile LEO constellation cannot reach, like dense urban spaces and office building interiors.
UBS flagged two keys to making this work: securing low-band spectrum and achieving the deployment density needed. Potential spectrum sources include 800 MHz airwaves sold by T-Mobile to Grain, 700 MHz E Block held by Echostar, and 900 MHz frequencies held by NextNav and Anterix.
Not every analyst is bullish. Phillip Securities held a Sell rating with a $75 price target, citing concerns about revenue durability despite the strong growth numbers.
Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating with a $300 price target, while Mizuho kept an Outperform rating, pointing to progress on the Grok 4.6 AI model.
SpaceX also completed its $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, which is now a wholly owned subsidiary.
More than 700 million units unlock in September, and over 650 million more follow in October. By year-end, about 4.9 billion units will be available to trade, roughly 70% of the stock not held by Elon Musk.
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