SpaceX (SPCX) closed its first full week as a public company at $153.23, down 17.2% from its debut. The drop pulled its market cap from a peak above $2.5 trillion back toward $2 trillion.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The stock opened at $150 and hit a high of $225.64 before reversing. It is now hovering just above its $135 IPO price — a level that investors are watching closely.
Despite the rough week, there is a catalyst ahead. Nasdaq confirmed on Friday that SPCX will be added to the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7. The company qualifies under Nasdaq’s expedited framework, which allows newly listed companies to be eligible for inclusion shortly after their IPO.
Analysts estimate the index addition could force passive funds to buy up to $7.3 billion worth of SPCX stock. That demand comes from both the Nasdaq 100 and Russell index inclusions. SpaceX’s weighting in the Nasdaq 100 will be under 1%.
The passive buying wave could provide near-term price support. But the stock’s fundamentals tell a more complicated story.
On Tuesday, SpaceX priced a $25 billion bond sale. The deal drew nearly $90 billion in orders and was upsized from an initial $20 billion target. The demand looked strong on the surface.
However, the debt has traded poorly since pricing. Bloomberg reported paper losses on the offering have reached around $305 million relative to benchmark US Treasuries.
Some on Wall Street are questioning why a company that just completed one of the biggest IPOs in history needed to raise billions more in debt so quickly. The back-to-back capital raises have raised eyebrows.
Allianz chief investment officer Ludovic Subran, speaking at the FT Global Insurance Summit, said the SpaceX deal shows markets moving “from a stretched boom into bubble territory.”
SpaceX carries a GF Score of 12 out of 100, reflecting weak marks across profitability and financial strength. The company posted a net margin of -26.44% and an operating margin of -11.05%.
Its price-to-sales ratio sits at 79.15 — a high multiple that prices in aggressive future growth.
Insiders sold $1.2 million in stock over the past three months. No insider purchases were recorded in the same period.
Separately, the Financial Times reported SpaceX is exploring a consumer mobile service built on Starlink’s direct-to-cell technology. The plan would see the company sell wireless plans directly to consumers, competing with established carriers.
OpenAI reportedly tapped the brakes on its own IPO plans, a move investors are reading as a sign that enthusiasm for AI-linked companies is cooling.
SpaceX’s Nasdaq 100 inclusion takes effect on July 7.
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