Tesla’s first-quarter earnings on April 22 are shaping up to be about one thing above all else: money — specifically, how much more of it the company plans to spend.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy laid out three things investors will be watching heading into the print: capital expenditure needs for new physical AI projects, the pace of Tesla’s shift away from traditional auto, and near-term margin pressure.
The centerpiece of the capex conversation is Terafab — Tesla’s plan to build a 1 terawatt AI compute factory. Levy flagged it as a “key question” for the earnings call, noting it was not included in the $20B+ 2026 capex guidance Tesla gave on its last call.
If fully built out, Barclays estimates Terafab could run into the mid-single-digit trillions. That’s a number worth sitting with.
Tesla also unveiled plans for 100 GW of solar capacity alongside Terafab. Levy described the combination as a symbolic moment — marking what he called “a symbolic baton pass for Tesla from automotive to Physical AI.”
The firm sees future growth driven increasingly by Robotaxi scaling, Full Self-Driving development, and Optimus production rather than vehicle sales.
On the near-term side, the picture is less exciting. Barclays expects Q1 margins to decline quarter-on-quarter, with lower delivery volumes and raw material costs both weighing on results.
Tesla’s stock has pulled back recently, and Barclays tied that directly to limited progress being disclosed on Robotaxi and Optimus — two areas that have become central to the bull case.
The analyst acknowledged that the selloff “could imply on the surface an opportunity for the stock to outperform on results.” But Barclays stopped short of that call.
Instead, the firm said it is taking “a more tempered view into the print.”
The concern is that even if Q1 numbers hold up, any commentary around rising capex could be read negatively by the market.
Higher spending on Terafab and solar would push Tesla further into negative free cash flow territory — something investors have historically flagged as a concern during heavy investment cycles.
Barclays said capex is unlikely to “exponentially increase” from current levels, but a step up from the already elevated $20B figure is probable.
The firm’s Equal Weight rating and $360 price target reflect that balanced view — not a bear case, but not a ringing endorsement either heading into what could be a noisy earnings call.
The Q1 report drops April 22.
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