TL;DR
Ari Paul, founder of the investment firm BlockTower Capital, presented a measured outlook and said Bitcoin stands at a decisive moment. He believes the coming stage will determine whether digital assets enter a long period of consolidation or begin a new phase of growth supported by real usage.
High level crypto market take: I’m 50%/50% between two scenarios. A&B. For each, I’ll provide a “steelman” argument.
A. The high is in forever (for this set of crypto assets.) This was/is the “final” wave in organic adoption. Everyone has heard of bitcoin and crypto, and…
— Ari Paul
(@AriDavidPaul) February 9, 2026
Paul outlined a first scenario in which the enthusiasm of recent years represented the top of a structural wave. Governments and large companies have tested blockchain systems, yet many organizations still find integration difficult for daily operations. The case of El Salvador showed both potential and limits of national adoption, and similar doubts appear among banks that explored custody services but postponed wider implementation.
From this angle, the sector looks similar to the technology industry after the year 2000. The internet survived and later reshaped the economy, but numerous early firms disappeared. Bitcoin could remain valuable even if many tokens lose relevance. Paul warned that leverage in derivatives markets remains elevated and further liquidations could push prices lower than most traders expect.
The second possibility treats the decline from recent highs as a pause within a larger uptrend. Supporters of this view point to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, steady inflows from pension funds, and the effect of the 2024 halving on new supply. Paul argued that speculative capital continues to search for alternatives to fiat systems, particularly with interest rates unstable across major economies.
He added that infrastructure has improved with faster payment rails, clearer custody frameworks, and better risk controls at exchanges. These elements could attract corporations that stayed cautious in previous cycles. Payment companies such as PayPal and Stripe expanded crypto tools, a sign that practical use grows beyond pure trading activity.
Paul noted that extreme events cannot be ignored. If large holders like MicroStrategy were forced to unwind positions, Bitcoin might revisit the $15,000 to $40,000 range. Even in that stressful case, he expects recovery once macro conditions stabilize and real demand increases.
Also read: Solana Hits 2-Year Lows — History Points to a Rebound Toward $100
