Article Details

Bitcoin Rebounds, but On-Chain Signals Still Warn the Bottom Isn’t In

TL;DR

• The NUPL indicator shows that the capitulation zone necessary for a historic rebound has not yet been reached.
• Despite price weakness, the Delta Growth Rate suggests the beginning of a fundamental accumulation phase.
• Bitcoin faces critical resistance at $90,180 before it can aim to close higher fair value gaps.

Bitcoin’s price action recently failed to attract fresh institutional interest, resulting in the formation of lower lows. As sentiment remains fragile around the $86,000 zone, analysts suggest that Bitcoin has not reached a market bottom just yet.

Data from CoinMarketCap indicates that the Fear and Greed Index currently sits at 29 points, reflecting a prevailing state of “fear.” This situation has led many retail investors to opt for panic selling to lock in remaining profits or mitigate further losses.

On-chain Metrics and Key Demand Zones

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator continues its downward trend; however, it remains in green territory. Historically, a cycle bottom is confirmed when this metric dips into negative levels—an event that has not occurred during the current 2026 correction.

On the other hand, spot market demand shows a concerning weakness following $213 million in net selling on exchanges. Nevertheless, there is a silver lining: price action has entered a technical demand zone that has served as a launchpad on three previous occasions.

For a sustainable recovery to take place, the asset must overcome the resistance band situated between $89,228 and $90,180. If it manage to break through this wall, the price could target the liquidity gap near $95,000, reactivating the bullish narrative toward new all-time highs.