TL;DR
The market has entered an unusually quiet stretch as Bitcoin perpetual trading activity slides to levels not seen since 2023. Months of tight, uneventful price action have drained momentum across major venues, leaving traders cautious ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. inflation release, a data point that could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
K33 Research reports that the 30‑day average combined volume for BTC/USDT perpetuals on Binance and Bybit has fallen to $10.8 billion as of Aug. 10. Only a small fraction of days since early 2021 have seen lower readings, mostly during late 2022 and 2023. Spot participation has weakened as well, with average daily Bitcoin spot volume dropping 18% over the past week to $1.8 billion, marking its lowest one‑week level since February 2024.
Seven‑day volatility has followed the same path, slipping to 0.6% on Sunday, the lowest reading since Christmas 2025. K33’s Vetle Lunde described the current environment as a self‑reinforcing cycle where muted activity discourages traders, further slowing the market.
Despite the slowdown, open interest in Bitcoin perpetuals has remained relatively high throughout the summer. K33 notes that open interest has averaged around 300,000 BTC between June 1 and Aug. 11, above the averages seen in 2025 and 2026. This elevated leverage leaves the market vulnerable to liquidation‑driven swings, especially with funding rates staying volatile yet moderate. Lunde warned that this mix keeps conditions fragile, with potential for sharp moves in either direction if liquidations begin to cascade.
Attention now turns to Wednesday’s July Consumer Price Index report, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect headline CPI to rise 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI is projected at 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively. Markets currently price in roughly a 50% chance of a 25‑basis‑point hike in September.
Bitcoin has traded between $60,000 and $80,000 for six straight months, holding near a 50% drawdown from its October 2025 peak. K33 highlights that this consolidation differs from past bear markets, with onchain data showing coins shifting toward long‑term holders.
