Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) has had a remarkable run — up more than 100% in the past year — and some analysts say the rally may not be over yet.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM
TSM stock is currently trading around $462. Over the past three months, the stock has risen 24.27%, and is up 102.41% over the last year. The S&P 500 gained just 25.39% over the same period.
One analyst now argues TSM could reach $500 per share, citing what they see as undervalued earnings power and a structural monopoly in advanced chip manufacturing.
Wall Street’s consensus EPS estimate for FY2026 is $15.76, putting the stock at a forward P/E of roughly 29x. The semiconductor sector median sits around 33x, which some see as room for TSM to re-rate higher.
One bull case puts actual EPS closer to $18.48 for FY2026, suggesting the stock is trading at closer to 25x earnings — cheaper than it looks on the surface.
In Q1 2026, TSMC posted revenue of $35.90 billion, up 35.1% year-over-year. High-Performance Computing drove 61% of that revenue, while advanced nodes at 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm made up 74% of total wafer revenue.
The 3nm node alone accounted for 25% of wafer revenue — a number that underlines where TSMC’s pricing power sits.
Monthly data reinforces the trend. In May, revenue was up 30.1% year-over-year. Cumulative revenue growth over the first five months of 2026 is running at 30%.
TSMC has also revised its full-year 2026 capex toward the top end of its $52 billion to $56 billion guidance range. The company is building out capacity to keep up with order backlogs from customers including Nvidia, Apple, and AMD.
CEO C.C. Wei has said global chip supply will not meet AI-driven demand for years.
The company is expanding production across new fabs in Taiwan, Arizona, and Japan. It is also developing Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate (CoPoS) packaging technology to meet next-generation AI processor requirements.
On Zacks, TSM holds a Rank #2 (Buy) and a Momentum Style Score of B. Over the past 60 days, two earnings estimates for FY2026 moved higher with none moving lower. The full-year consensus estimate rose from $15.10 to $15.30 over that period.
On Wall Street, TSM has a Strong Buy consensus based on five Buy ratings and one Hold. No analyst currently rates it a Sell.
The average price target among those analysts is $465, implying about 0.62% upside from current levels over the next 12 months.
Weekly price performance for TSM is up 2.11%, matching the Zacks Semiconductor – Circuit Foundry industry average. Average 20-day trading volume stands at approximately 11.6 million.
The post Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Stock: The Bull Case Wall Street Can’t Ignore appeared first on CoinCentral.
