TSMC is heading into Thursday’s earnings report with the wind at its back. The world’s largest advanced chip manufacturer is expected to post a 59% jump in Q2 net profit to T$632.6 billion, or roughly $19.65 billion, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate based on 18 analysts.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM
TSM opened at $421.43 on Tuesday, off its 52-week high of $479.00, with the stock up 56% year-to-date.
If the profit figure clears T$572.5 billion, it would mark a new all-time quarterly high for the company — and its 10th straight quarter of profit growth.
TSMC already gave investors a preview of what’s coming. On Monday, the company reported a 36% year-on-year rise in Q2 revenue, beating market forecasts and setting a new record. June revenue alone jumped 67.9% year-over-year.
Demand for TSMC’s 3-nanometre and 2-nanometre process technologies, along with its CoWoS advanced chip packaging, is driving the results. Key customers Nvidia and Apple continue to pull heavily from TSMC’s production lines.
“TSMC’s strong second-quarter revenue shows AI demand remains healthy, driving demand for its advanced chip production and CoWoS packaging,” said Dan Nystedt, research analyst at TriOrient.
Beyond the headline profit number, investors are watching closely for any update to full-year revenue guidance. TSMC currently guides for “above 30%” growth year-on-year. Bank of America’s Asia semiconductor analyst Haas Liu says supply chain checks point to a potential upgrade.
Capital expenditure plans are also on the radar. On its April earnings call, TSMC said 2026 capex would land at the high end of a $52–$56 billion range. Liu now forecasts capex could be raised to around $58 billion, citing tight equipment supply and capacity expansion by memory makers including Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix.
Not everyone expects a capex hike. TriOrient’s Nystedt thinks TSMC will hold its current guidance range.
TSMC’s market cap now sits at approximately $2.19 trillion — nearly double that of Samsung Electronics at around $1.97 trillion.
Analyst sentiment remains firmly positive. Bank of America raised its price target from $490 to $590 in late June, while Susquehanna lifted its target from $500 to $575 around the same time. Needham bumped its target to $480 back in April.
Citigroup reiterated a “Buy” rating on July 6. The consensus rating across 16 analysts sits at “Buy,” with an average price target of $449.38. Two analysts carry a “Strong Buy.”
TSMC also recently raised its quarterly dividend to $1.1136 per share, up from $0.95, payable October 8 to shareholders of record September 16.
Institutional interest continues to build. Bleakley Financial Group raised its TSM stake by 15.1% in Q1, bringing its total holding to 68,969 units worth around $23.3 million.
TSMC’s earnings call is scheduled for 0600 GMT Thursday, where third-quarter guidance and any full-year revisions will be front and center.
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