UnitedHealth Group delivers its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results before the opening bell on January 27. The timing comes as investors weigh a challenging year against Wall Street’s continued optimism.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, UNH
The health insurance provider has shed 34% of its value over the past 12 months. Medicare Advantage medical costs have climbed higher than expected. A Department of Justice investigation into billing practices has kept pressure on shares.
Analysts project earnings of $2.10 per share for the quarter. That marks a 69% drop compared to the year-ago period. Revenue forecasts point to $113.8 billion, representing 13% annual growth.
The company has delivered seven earnings beats in the past nine quarters. Last quarter brought $113.2 billion in revenue, matching Wall Street’s estimates with 12.2% year-over-year growth. Customer count held steady at 54.08 million members.
A U.S. Senate investigation released findings on January 12 that caught market attention. Lawmakers reviewed approximately 50,000 internal company documents as part of their probe.
The investigation focused on Medicare Advantage payment practices. These plans receive fixed government payments per patient, with larger amounts for members who have serious health conditions. This risk adjustment system determines final payment levels.
Investigators concluded the company approached the system as a profit opportunity rather than patient support. The findings add another layer of scrutiny as earnings approach.
Bernstein analyst Lance Wilkes holds an Outperform rating with a $444 price target. He named UnitedHealth his top healthcare selection for 2026. Wilkes expects margin improvement as the company exits underperforming business lines.
His price target suggests roughly 25% upside from current trading levels. Wilkes acknowledges the recovery represents a “long road back” for patient investors.
Morgan Stanley’s Erin Wright maintains a Buy rating with a $409 target, down slightly from $411. Her outlook still implies 14% potential gains from current prices.
Options traders are positioning for movement around the earnings release. The at-the-money straddle suggests expectations for a 5.54% swing in either direction.
TipRanks data shows 16 Buy ratings and 3 Hold ratings from analysts covering the stock. The Strong Buy consensus comes with an average price target of $399.50, pointing to 12.14% upside.
Analyst estimates have remained largely stable over the past 30 days. This suggests confidence in the business trajectory heading into the report.
UnitedHealth leads healthcare providers in reporting this earnings season. The broader healthcare segment has gained 2.9% over the past month. UnitedHealth shares have climbed 7.9% during the same window, trading at $355.06 against an average analyst target of $393.77.
The company has missed revenue estimates five times over the last two years.
The post UnitedHealth (UNH) Stock: Can Q4 Earnings Tuesday Spark Recovery After 34% Drop? appeared first on Blockonomi.
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